NBA playoff prop bets April 27: Bet on Michael Porter Jr. to stay hot vs. Lakers
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Jaime Jaquez and Chet Holmgren are both fitting in nicely in their first postseason action. Photos via AP.
Jordan Horrobin
@JordanHorrobin
April 27, 2024

A pair of rookies are featured in Saturday's NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Chet Holmgren and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have looked like they belong on the postseason stage, and both are worth backing today. In the nightcap, I'm betting on Michael Porter Jr. to stay productive as the Denver Nuggets look to advance to the second round.

Check out these NBA prop bets for April 27.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-130)

The playoff-sized spotlight isn't too bright for Holmgren.

In Game 1 against the New Orleans Pelicans, Holmgren had a 15-point double-double while also swatting five shots. He followed that up with 26 points, seven rebounds and two blocks in Game 2.

Oh, and he scored multiple threes in both games.

The 7-foot-1 youngster shot 37.0% from deep during the regular season, averaging 1.6 makes on 4.3 attempts. But his volume has been even stronger against the Pelicans.

Holmgren has attempted five or more threes in all five matchups against New Orleans this season. If he keeps that up, this bet has a great chance to cash.

In a way, the Pelicans are a dreadful matchup for opposing 3-point shooters. The team allowed the second-lowest 3PT% this season (34.9%).

But that's not the only way to gauge the matchup. Yes, the Pels defend the 3-point line well, but they're also comfortable letting teams attempt a high volume of shots from out there. New Orleans allowed the second-most attempted threes per game this season (38.7).

A 2-for-6 showing beyond the arc for Holmgren would mean the Pelicans did their job. But it would also mean Holmgren cashed this bet.

Key stat: Holmgren has scored multiple 3-pointers in three of five games against the Pelicans, averaging 5.8 attempted threes per game.

Quick picks

Jaquez over 14.5 points (-130): Minutes volume matters, and right now Jaquez is getting a ton of run.

He's played 30-plus minutes in both playoff games so far, scoring 16 and 14 points in those matchups. So he's right around this mark.

As a rookie, Jaquez saw a wide range of workloads throughout the season. But when he played 30-plus minutes, he was pretty reliable against this number.

Jaquez has scored 15-plus points in 23 of 36 games (63.9%) when playing at least 30 minutes. He fell one point short in Game 2, but that was on some dreadful 4-of-13 shooting. The volume should be high enough for him to cash this bet tonight.

Porter over 25.5 points/rebounds (-105): The Denver Nuggets have an embarrassment of riches, which is evidenced by the fact that Porter is their third or fourth option on most nights.

Even so, Porter finds plenty of opportunities to contribute. Especially against the Lakers.

MPJ has gone over this points/rebounds total in five straight games against the Lakers. In six matchups this season, he's averaging 20.8 PPG and 9.5 RPG.

With a sweet shot from beyond the arc, Porter can score in bunches. But he's also 6-foot-10 and can easily make his mark on the glass, too.

Picks made at 1:25 p.m. on 04/27/2024.

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