Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks Game 5: Bet on Indiana to close out the series in Milwaukee
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The Pacers have scored 120-plus points in three straight games and won all of them. Photo by Michael Conroy/AP.
Jordan Horrobin
@JordanHorrobin
April 30, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks will likely miss their two biggest stars tonight as they look to stave off elimination against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both listed as doubtful for Game 5, and that has me backing the Pacers on a skinny spread. I'm also taking an alt over for the game and for Brook Lopez's points prop.

Check out the full Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks for Game 5 of their first-round matchup on April 30.

Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks

Parlay: Pacers -2.5 + Over 211.5 points + Lopez over 14.5 points (+320)

Pacers -2.5 (-157): Indiana was a road favourite in Game 1 and got Dame Time'd in a 15-point loss. But I think the clock has struck midnight for Milwaukee.

The Pacers have flexed plenty of offensive muscle in Games 2-4, scoring 120-plus points each time and covering this spread in all three games.

Under the assumption that neither Giannis nor Lillard play, can the Bucks keep up on the scoring front? I don't think so.

Indiana is 7-2 against Milwaukee this year, and the Bucks are 1-9 on the season without Lillard. Tonight, the Pacers should be able to close the book on this series.

Other parlay picks

Over 211.5 points (-165): Giannis is a force at both ends of the court, but his absence on defence has been more pronounced in this series.

Indiana is running up and down on Milwaukee, scoring 116.5 points per game. Each of the past three games has finished with 233 total points or more.

Both teams rank in the top four in offensive rating this postseason, and all but one of their nine matchups this season has cleared a 211.5-point total by over 20 points.

Nine of Milwaukee's 10 games without Lillard have gone over this total, too.

Lopez over 14.5 points (-195): In Game 4, with Lillard and Giannis on the sidelines, Lopez had his best scoring output since November.

The big man scored 27 points on 12-of-18 shooting, which includes three 3-pointers on five attempts.

Lopez is averaging 15.2 PPG against the Pacers this year and has cleared this line in five of nine matchups. But that doesn't illustrate his outsized opportunity tonight.

With two superstars likely out, Lopez — who's shooting 60.4% on 13.3 FG attempts per game this series — should be asked to shoulder a good chunk of the scoring load.

Picks as of 3:00 p.m. on 04/30/2024.

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