A battle between two of the past three World Series champions goes under the lights for Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Atlanta Braves are favoured to sweep the defending champion Texas Rangers tonight at Truist Park. At the very least, I like Atlanta to get off to a nice start through five innings.

Check out my Rangers vs. Braves picks for the April 21 game in Atlanta.

Rangers vs. Braves picks

Best bet: Atlanta to lead after five innings (-114)

When a pitcher faces a lineup for the very first time, who has the upper hand?

I don't think there's a perfect answer, though I tend to give the edge to the pitcher. While pitchers are merely looking to execute, hitters must adjust to a pitcher's delivery, pitch mix and sequencing.

With that in mind, I'm hoping Atlanta starter Darius Vines — who has never faced anyone in the Rangers' lineup — can get rolling tonight.

Vines, 25, allowed one run on four hits in a 4.2-inning season debut back on Monday. It was only his sixth MLB appearance.

From the other dugout, the Rangers will send Michael Lorenzen to the mound. Lorenzen, who is on his fifth team in four seasons, has subpar numbers against the Braves' lineup in 100 plate apperances:

• .250 BA
• .330 wOBA
• .455 SLG
• 22.0% K rate

The familiarity that Atlanta has with Lorenzen should help the team scratch out some early runs.

Also, the Braves (11-6-2) have a better F5 record than the Rangers (8-7-7) so far, according to ATS.io.

Key stat: Atlanta has led at the F5 mark in both games of this series, as well as seven of its past 10 overall.

Quick picks

Corey Seager under 1.5 bases (-124): Seager is on a 10-game power outage, and this is a reasonable price to tail that trend.

Since April 10, Seager has just one extra-base hit in 43 plate appearances. He owns a .231 SLG in that span and has gone under 1.5 bases in seven of 10 games.

As mentioned, he has no history against Vines. That's not necessarily a drawback for Seager, but it's by no means a plus, either.

Since the start of last season, Seager's OPS on the road (.864) is far below his OPS at home (1.073).

Matt Olson 1+ runs (-125): Olson is 3-for-6 — with a pair of homers — against Lorenzen, but I don't want a piece of his bases prop.

The reigning HR champ is hitless in four straight games but has six walks in that span. On the plus side, if teams are going to pitch around Olson, he'll still find chances to score.

Olson has reached base via a hit or walk in 17 of 19 games. And he has 12 runs already. From the heart of a loaded lineup, he's definitely worth a glance in this market.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET 04/21/2024.