Blue Jays picks and props vs. Orioles June 5: Bet on Baltimore, Rutschman to crush Berrios
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Rutschman has dominated Berrios in the past. Photo by Nick Wass/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
June 5, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays look to rebound from consecutive blowout losses to the Baltimore Orioles.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has been outscored 17-to-3 this series and is now four games below .500. I don't expect Jose Berrios to stop the bleeding. Bet on Baltimore starting hot and Adley Rutschman doing damage against the righty.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles for Wednesday, June 5.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

Best Bet: Rutschman over 1.5 bases (+125)

There's dominating a pitcher and then there's what Rutschman has done to Berrios.

Baltimore's superstar catcher is 12-for-19 against the righty with two doubles and three home runs.

Rutschman has gotten a bit of batted-ball luck, according to Baseball Savant, but his .448 xBA and .832 xSLG are still all-world numbers to have against any pitcher. He's also never been struck out by Berrios and has whiffed on just 6.1% of his pitches.

In their lone meeting this year, Rutschman took Berrios deep twice, including this 425-foot bomb:

Stop and stare is right.

This would be a nice price to back Rutschman at even if Berrios wasn't pitching. The 26-year-old is hitting .305 this season with a .812 OPS and 18 extra-base hits.

He has a hit in eight straight games, clearing this line four times.

Rutschman tends to hit lefties better than righties but we can see why he's had success by looking at Berrios' pitch mix.

The righty relies heavily on a sinker/slurve combo with a 4-seam fastball mixed in. He throws those pitches a combined 84% of the time.

Key stat: Rutschman is batting .376 against fastballs this year and .262 against sliders (slurve included).

Quick picks

Orioles F3 moneyline - tie no bet (+104): Rutschman isn't the only Oriole who's had Berrios' number.

Baltimore's lineup is hitting .270 against him in a healthy 207-plate appearance sample size. The group has only struck out 17.2% of the time and has hit 13 home runs.

And I'm not convinced Berrios is actually good despite his 2.78 ERA.

The righty's 4.25 FIP and 4.15 xERA tell a much different story. Berrios has been extremely lucky lately. He's given up just eight earned runs in his last four starts despite allowing 24 hits and three walks.

I expect Baltimore to hit him early and often and for its pitcher — Albert Suarez — to shut Toronto down.

The 34-year-old righty has been moving in and out of the bullpen this year but has been spectacular when called upon. He has a 1.57 ERA and has given up one or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts.

Picks made at 8:23 a.m. on 06/05/24.

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