Logan Gilbert is featured as the top prop pick for Wednesday's all-day MLB action.
The pregame narrative: Gilbert should deliver strikeouts in a plus matchup. A fade on Graham Ashcraft and a play on JD Martinez round out the recommendations.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 5.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (+116)
This isn't a number Gilbert has been hitting in recent starts but the Oakland A's represent a juicy assignment for the Seattle Mariners right-hander.
Oakland has the third-highest K rate versus righties and is hitting .224 against them, 24th in MLB.
Gilbert's teammate George Kirby, a fellow righty, punched out nine A's over five innings last night. The two have identical 23.7% K rates since Kirby made his MLB debut in 2022.
At a -180 price to top 17.5 outs, Gilbert is expected to work deep, which would provide him with more opportunities to clear this number.
It's a line starting pitchers have been living near against the A's. Six of the last 10 starters to face Oakland (openers not included) have hit the over on this number. Three others finished with six Ks.
Gilbert went 1-5 against this line over six May starts, but context is important.
He faced the Houston Astros twice — the most difficult team for RHPs to retire on strikes — and the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees.
Both the Royals and Yankees have bottom-seven strikeout rates versus right-handers.
Key stat: Prior to May, Gilbert was 4-2 to the over vs. a 6.5 line, landing on six Ks the two times he fell short.
Quick picks
Ashcraft under 16.5 outs (-112): Ashcraft's teammate Frankie Montas took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of last night's Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies game.
But I wouldn't expect Ashcraft to repeat that production at Coors Field, even against a light-hitting Rockies team.
Coors remains the sport's most dangerous offensive environment, weakening the outlook for any pitcher who toes the rubber in Colorado.
Ashcraft enters with a 4.76 ERA, the same mark he recorded last season. He allows plenty of baserunners and struggles to keep the ball in the yard, posting an above-average HR/9 rate this season and last.
He was 4-1 against this line in April. He's gone 1-5 since, falling short in five consecutive starts.
Martinez over 0.5 RBI (+120): The New York Mets face Washington Nationals left-hander Patrick Corbin, a pitcher worth targeting in most situations.
Corbin sports the third-highest ERA and lowest K rate among qualified starters. His .313 opponent's batting average is also the worst mark in MLB.
He has allowed four-plus runs in seven of 12 starts.
As the No. 4 hitter with a .275 average, I love Martinez's chances of delivering against Corbin.
Two of the four hitters ahead of Martinez, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, have both enjoyed success against Corbin over larger samples.
That should put Martinez in a position to do damage, which he has provided versus lefties. Martinez is batting .314 with a .943 OPS against LHPs this year.
Martinez posted a .900-plus OPS versus southpaws in each of the previous two seasons.
Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/05/2024.