Luka Doncic plays in his first NBA Finals game in a city where he's already seen success this season.

The pregame narrative: In his one game at TD Garden this year, Doncic recorded a 37-point triple-double. I expect a similar showing on Thursday, so I'm taking two of his props. On the other side, Jaylen Brown has been on fire lately, and there's reason to believe that will continue.

Check out the full breakdown of my Mavericks vs. Celtics prop bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday, June 6.

Mavericks vs. Celtics prop bets

Best Bet: Doncic over 31.5 pts (-115)

With sights set on his first NBA championship, Doncic will want to make his mark early in the series. The Celtics are a team he can take advantage of.

The Celtics ranked third in defensive rating this season (112.4). But they allowed opposing point guards to score 24.5 points per game, which ranks 13th out of the 16 teams that made the playoffs.

Despite averaging 28.8 points per game in the playoffs so far, Doncic eclipsed 32 points in Dallas' three road games during the Timberwolves series.

He averaged 24.7 PPG in the series against the Thunder, which explains why his playoff average is driven down after he led the league in scoring during the regular season (33.9 PPG).

With Boston limiting opposing power forwards and centres to just 43.2 combined points per game this season, it feels like Doncic and his backcourt mate, Kyrie Irving, will have to carry the load for Dallas.

Key stat: In two games against Boston this season, Doncic has scored 33 and 37 points, respectively.

Quick picks

Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (+100): Not only did Doncic dominate the Celtics this season as a scorer, but he also cleaned up on the glass.

In his two matchups against Boston this year, the 6-foot-7 guard collected 30 total rebounds. He easily cashed this prop in both games.

This could be due to Celtics players like 7-foot-3 Kristaps Porzingis limiting the Mavericks' bigs from grabbing boards.

Whatever the case, the value here at even money is too good to pass up. Doncic is averaging 9.7 rebounds in the playoffs and has already smashed this mark twice against the Celtics.

Brown over 23.5 points (-117): Brown has arguably been Boston's best player this postseason.

He's shooting a lights-out 54.1% from the field and averaging 25.0 points per game through the first three series.

Additionally, he's surpassed this total in both games against Dallas this year, averaging 29.5 points.

The one issue is the firepower the Celtics possess, which can take shots away from Brown if someone else gets hot early.

He's still the No. 2 option behind Tatum, so it shouldn't be a problem. Brown has scored 24-plus points in eight of the last 10, so there's no reason to overthink this one.

Picks made at 12:53 p.m. on 06/04/2024.