Mavericks vs. Celtics best bet: Game 1

Mavericks vs. Celtics playoff best bet Game 1: Ride Dallas' ATS streak in NBA Finals opener

The Mavericks are 34-16 ATS on the road this season. Photo by Michael Dwyer/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 2, 2024

On paper, this NBA Finals looks lopsided. But we'll soon know if the Dallas Mavericks can exceed expectations once again.

The pregame narrative: I'm taking the underdog Mavericks with the points in their Game 1 matchup against the Boston Celtics. Though Boston is a formidable squad that made mincemeat of the Eastern Conference, I expect Dallas to be its toughest test of the postseason.

Check out the full breakdown of my Mavericks vs. Celtics best bet for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday, June 6.

Mavericks vs. Celtics best bet

Best Bet: Mavericks +6.5 (-110)

Dallas is 6-1 straight up as an underdog this postseason, but I'm not asking for an outright win. I just know the team continues to look totally comfortable on the road.

In 50 regular season and playoff games as visitors, the Mavericks are 34-16 ATS, per Team Rankings. That's an NBA-best 68.0% success rate.

TNT broadcaster Stan Van Gundy recently referred to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving as "the most talented backcourt in the history of the NBA." Whether or not you agree, the tandem's recent excellence cannot be ignored.

Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who had the NBA's best defensive rating in the regular season, Doncic and Irving combined to shoot 48.1/41.2/83.1. They collectively averaged 59.4 points per game.

Talking down on Boston would be disingenuous given how the team breezed through the Eastern Conference. The Celtics won 64 regular season games — the most by an East squad since the Miami Heat in 2012-13 — and went 12-2 on their side of the playoff bracket.

But it's also true that Boston played three watered-down lineups. Miami's Jimmy Butler was sidelined, while Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell and Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton both missed time.

Doncic is dealing with a knee sprain, which presumably won't fully heal until the offseason. That hasn't really slowed down his production, though, and he should be about as healthy as possible for Game 1 after six days off.

With that in mind, I believe the Celtics will see their most complete opponent yet. And that makes me skeptical that they can cover this number.

Boston is just 1-5 ATS in its past six games. The team only covered a -6.5 spread in one of three matchups last round.

Key stat: The Mavericks have covered a +6.5 spread in 15 of 17 playoff games.

Pick as of 3:30 p.m. on 06/02/2024.

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