Blue Jays picks and props vs. Tigers May 25: Fade Toronto with Berrios pitching and back Keith
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Berrios has given up seven home runs in his last five starts. Photo by Matt Slocum/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
May 25, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers meet for a rubber match today.

The pregame narrative: Toronto fell flat yesterday with Alek Manoah on the mound and now turns to Jose Berrios in search of a series win. I'm fading the Blue Jays on the moneyline and am backing Tigers rookie Colt Keith to go over his bases prop.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for May 25.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best Bet: Keith over 1.5 bases (+165)

Detroit's No. 1 prospect had a tough start to his MLB career.

Keith slashed .154/.222/.165 in 26 appearances through April and had more strikeouts (18) than hits (14). The power outage was the most concerning, though, as he had only one extra-base hit — a double — in that span.

But the rookie flipped a switch in May and is batting .337 with a .933 OPS this month.

He hit his first major league home run last night and has cleared this prop three times in his last five games with nine total hits, three of which went for extra bases.

I'm going to go ahead and say this isn't an aberration. Hitting for power wasn't an issue when Keith was in the minors. In 126 games across AAA and AA ball last year he logged 27 home runs and added on 38 doubles for a .932 OPS.

On the surface level, Berrios might seem like a tough cookie to crack but the righty's numbers are bordering on fraudulent.

He has a 2.98 ERA and .227 opponent batting average in 60.1 IP but his 4.87 xERA (20th percentile in MLB) and .271 xBA (22nd percentile in MLB) tell a different story, per Baseball Savant.

Berrios has given up seven home runs in his last five starts and has an eighth-percentile hard-hit rate (47.6%). Opponents are getting after him frequently and I expect him to have a disaster of a start today.

Key stat: Keith is hitting .413 with a 1.016 OPS vs. RHP this month.

Quick pick

Tigers moneyline (-103): I've already touched on Berrios' issues so let me highlight Detroit's pitcher.

Reese Olson gets the ball and he's been nothing short of spectacular in his sophomore season. The 24-year-old righty has a 2.16 ERA in nine starts and has only given up two earned runs in four starts this month (0.83 ERA, 21.2 IP).

Detroit has lost all of those games but that's an indictment on the team's offence, not his pitching.

Toronto's bats were heating up but got shut down by 36-year-old Kenta Maeda yesterday, who carried a 6.75 ERA into the game. I made the mistake of expecting the Jays' bats to show up yesterday when I backed them to win and I'm not going to get fooled again.

Picks made at 9:23 a.m. on 05/25/24.

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