Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox: June 19

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Red Sox June 19: Back the F5 over at plus money

The Red Sox have scored 6.1 runs per game over the past two weeks. Photo by Erin Hooley/AP.

Jordan Horrobin

June 19, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Boston Red Sox on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a moneyline favourite, but my favourite pick in this game isn't on a side. I'm backing the over on the five-inning run total at plus money. On the prop market, look for Jarren Duran to stay hot and cross the plate.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 19.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Go to full Blue Jays/Red Sox MLB betting markets.

Best bet: Over 4.5 runs - first five innings (+108)

Some folks still consider Kevin Gausman the ace of the Blue Jays' rotation, and that might be true. But he's looked less like an ace this year than in the recent past.

Over his prior four seasons, Gausman posted a 3.15 ERA and 2.82 FIP. He's up to a 4.08 ERA and 3.39 FIP this season.

Baseball Savant paints a more concerning picture. Gausman ranks in the bottom 20 percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. With the right offence, he's capable of getting knocked around.

The Red Sox have one such offence that can get to Gausman — and it already has.

Boston's current lineup is 30-for-90 (.333) against Gausman with a .478 SLG. Last year, he allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over 8.1 innings against the Red Sox.

Offensively for the Blue Jays, the numbers against Boston starter Brayan Bello are also encouraging (albeit in a smaller sample). Toronto's lineup is 21-for-54 (.389) with a .593 SLG against the third-year righty.

In 12 starts this year for Bello (6-4, 5.00 ERA), this F5 over has hit 10 times.

Key stat: Dating back to 2022, the F5 over has cashed in Gausman's past six starts against the Red Sox.

Quick picks

Over 8 runs (-112): Following the logic of my best bet, the over on the full game total should absolutely be in play tonight.

Boston has a solid offence that is really clicking right now. Over the past two weeks, the Sox have the fourth-highest wRC+ (143), scoring 6.1 runs per game.

This over is 10-4 in Gausman's 14 starts and 9-2-1 in Bello's 12 starts this year.

Duran over 0.5 runs (+108): With a relatively low game total, it's not a surprise to see Duran getting plus-money odds to score. But there are a lot of reasons to back Boston's leadoff man tonight.

He's on an exceptional tear right now, scoring 15 runs in his past 12 games while posting a .365/.443/.635 slash line. And he's cashed this bet in 10 of those 12 games.

Also, Duran has done serious damage in this matchup already. The speedy outfielder is 5-for-10 against Gausman with four doubles.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 06/19/24.

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