The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action at Rogers Centre tonight to face the Cincinnati Reds in the middle of their three-game series.
The pregame narrative: Last night's game didn't go according to plan for Toronto, but tonight is another opportunity for some players to shine on an individual level. Read why I'm backing Daulton Varsho and Jose Berrios on the prop market.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 20.
Blue Jays picks vs. Reds
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Best Bet: Varsho over 0.5 runs (+100)
In a lineup constantly searching for productive bats to surround Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Varsho has stepped up.
The speedy outfielder has a .286/.385/.429 slash line in 15 games this month, tallying nine runs in that span. On Aug. 8, he earned a promotion to the No. 2 spot in the lineup — a premium position for scoring.
You see, Guerrero bats in the No. 3 spot, and he's been raking for quite some time. With another home run last night, he's up to 26 extra-base hits and a 1.369 OPS since the all-star break.
So if Varsho can get on base — as he's done eight times in the past four games — he should have a solid chance to score.
The Blue Jays didn't do much against a pitcher making his MLB debut last night, but tonight is another prime opportunity to get the bats going.
Carson Spiers (4-4, 4.55 ERA) has been knocked around quite a bit since the start of July. Over his past 28.0 innings, he's allowed 42 baserunners and 20 runs.
The left-handed Varsho is arguably better against southpaws, but I think Spiers is a righty that anyone can do damage against right now. And from Spiers' side of things, lefty hitters are a known weakness.
Key stat: Since Spiers debuted in MLB last year, left-handed batters have a .313/.358/.512 slash line against him.
Quick pick
Berrios over 5.5 Ks (+102): This is a worthwhile spot to take the plunge with Berrios, who has hovered around this strikeout total in several recent starts.
Berrios has gone five consecutive outings with at least five Ks, clearing this total twice. And he has a great matchup tonight to hit the over again.
Cincinnati has the fourth-highest K rate against righties (25.1%). Berrios, fittingly, has a 25.0% K rate against the Reds' current lineup (13 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances).
The other teams in the top five for K rate versus righties are the Mariners, Rockies, A's and Braves. Berrios has had four matchups against those teams this season and has cashed this bet each time.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 08/20/24.
