I'm fading a pair of notable Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in their home matchup against the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Seattle starter Bryce Miller has been cruising lately, and I think he has what it takes to quiet Shohei Ohtani tonight. I'm also taking the under on Walker Buehler's strikeout total despite the Mariners' high-strikeout tendencies.
Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 20.
Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Ohtani under 1.5 bases (+106)
I'm not going to spend too much time critiquing Ohtani, a two-time MVP who is well on his way to a third. But have you noticed his subtle slump in recent weeks?
Over his past 20 games, Ohtani is batting 13-for-83 (.157) with 21 strikeouts.
A flurry of home runs has propped up his overall production in that span, but I don't expect Ohtani to leave the yard tonight. Miller has only allowed five home runs over his past 14 starts (0.56 HR/9)
The Seattle starter has really trended upward since the calendar flipped to July. From then onward, he has a 1.91 ERA and a .553 opponent OPS through seven outings. In four of those starts, he tossed six-plus innings of shutout ball.
Ohtani may be well ahead of the field in the NL MVP race, but he's not immune to performance dips. He's in one of those right now and Miller isn't likely to make it any easier.
Against left-handed batters (like Ohtani), Miller throws either his four-seamer or splitter nearly 70% of the time. Both pitches have garnered sub-.200 batting averages, per Baseball Savant.
Key stat: Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 11 of his past 20 games.
Quick picks
Victor Robles over 0.5 runs (+128): I highlighted this bet yesterday at this very price and Robles let me down. Time to see if it's a fool me once or fool me twice situation.
Robles, admittedly, has cooled down considerably after a hot start with Seattle. He's batting .172 in 16 games this month.
But he's still batting leadoff for the Mariners, which maximizes his opportunity to score. He's also 3-for-10 with a triple in his career against Buehler
Speaking of Buehler (1-4, 6.02 ERA), this has been quite a bumpy season for the Dodgers starter. In an injury-riddled campaign, Buehler has allowed three or more runs in eight of nine outings.
On Aug. 14, Buehler returned from an injured list stint in underwhelming fashion: 3.1 innings, four hits, four walks, four runs.
Buehler under 4.5 Ks (+130): The Mariners have the highest K rate in the majors against right-handed pitchers (28.5%). That certainly makes this a daunting time to go with an under.
But Buehler is really struggling this year and I don't trust that he'll be able to mow down Seattle hitters tonight. The L.A. starter has gone under this line in seven of nine starts (including his return from the IL last week).
We're three seasons and one major elbow surgery removed from seeing Buehler at the peak of his powers. This year, he's posting career-worsts in everything — including a 7.6 K/9 and a 6.28 FIP.
Buehler's whiff rate (16.7%) is the lowest in the majors, and his 23.1% chase rate isn't much better (sixth percentile). Numbers like that make him easier to fade in even the best matchups.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/20/2024.
