Celtics vs. Pacers SGP picks: Game 4

Celtics vs. Pacers SGP picks Game 4: Bet on Indiana on alt spread, Siakam and Brown to score

Back Pascal Siakam and the Pacers in Game 4. Photo by Darron Cummings/AP.

Avery Perri

May 27, 2024

The Boston Celtics are one win away from the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Indiana Pacers have found creative ways to lose this series but I'll tease them up as an underdog in tonight's win-or-go-home game. Backing Pascal Siakam and Jaylen Brown to score rounds out this +300 SGP.

Check out the full Celtics vs. Pacers SGP picks for Game 4 on Monday, May 27.

Celtics vs. Pacers SGP picks

Parlay: Pacers +12.5 + Siakam over 23.5 points + Brown over 24.5 points (+300)

Pacers +12.5 (-250): In an alternate reality, the Pacers could be up 2-1 in this series. But they're not.

Indiana had a three-point lead and the ball with 17 seconds left in Game 1 but turned it over, gave up a game-tying three to Brown, and lost in overtime.

The Pacers also had a 93.8% chance to win Game 3, according to ESPN Analytics, but blew an eight-point lead with 2:38 left.

That effectively put the nail in their season's coffin. But I don't expect Indiana to go out with a whimper.

The Pacers are 6-1 at home this postseason with a +12.3 net rating. They have covered this number in 12 of 16 playoff games, including all seven at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Other parlay picks

Siakam over 23.5 points (-112): Tyrese Haliburton is officially listed as questionable with a hamstring injury but it would be surprising to see him play after missing a pivotal Game 3.

That said, I expect Siakam to step up in his absence.

The former Toronto Raptor had 22 points on Saturday but had cleared this mark in four of seven games prior. Siakam is shooting 57.6% from the field and 43.8% from deep in his last eight outings and should have the volume to bring this over the finish line.

Boston's opponents are shooting 44.6% from the midrange this postseason, which ranks 12th out of 20 playoff and play-in teams, per Cleaning the Glass.

Siakam has taken 41% of his shots from the midrange, which is in the 94th percentile of all playoff players.

Brown over 24.5 points (-148): Brown scored 26 points when he played hero in Game 1 and followed it up with a 40-point outburst in Game 2.

He fell just shy of this total on Saturday, with 24 points on 10-of-18 shooting but I'm happy to back the swingman tonight.

Brown is shooting 54.5% from the field this postseason and 56.0% since the start of the second round. He's gone over this mark in five of his last eight games.

Picks as of 9:58 a.m. on 05/27/2024.

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