Knotted at one game apiece, the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers shift their series to North Texas for Game 3 tonight.

The pregame narrative: I'm fading Luka Doncic, but only as a passer. And in a game that should feature plenty of defence, Kawhi Leonard's steals/blocks prop looks like a solid play.

Check out these Clippers vs. Mavericks picks for Game 3 of their first-round series on April 26.

Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

Best Bet: Doncic under 8.5 assists (+128)

Doncic's recent playoff history makes this a worthwhile fade.

In 17 games since the 2022 postseason, Doncic has averaged just 6.5 assists and hit this under 13 times.

Could it be that Doncic prefers to decide high-leverage games with his own shots rather than shots from his teammates? Perhaps.

But in this case, the Clippers' effectiveness on defence has something to do with it, too.

L.A. has allowed the seventh-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards (8.1) this year, per Fantasy Pros. And for the most part, the Clips have put the clamps on Doncic's passing ability.

In eight games against L.A. since the start of the 2022-23 season, Doncic has averaged just 6.4 assists.

Taking the under on Doncic's assists at 9.5 (-141) is playable, too. But if you're looking for something a bit splashier, the plus-money action on this line is worth a go.

Key stat: Dating back to last season, Doncic has gone under 8.5 assists in six of eight games against the Clippers.

Quick picks

Leonard over 2.5 steals/blocks (-106): Leonard's defensive presence was felt early and often in Game 2. He had three steals by the 11-minute mark of the second quarter.

The seven-time All-Defensive selection finished with four steals and a block. He had a down night on offence (15 points, 0-for-5 from 3-point range) but still positively affected the game.

This shouldn't surprise anyone who's watched Leonard in the playoffs in recent seasons. He's a strong defensive player year-round, but he turns up the heat in the postseason.

In 14 playoff games dating back to 2021, Leonard has averaged 2.2 steals and 0.8 blocks, cashing this over nine times. That includes six of eight meetings with the Mavericks.

Under 211.5 points (-113): Unders are hot in the NBA playoffs, and they're hot in this particular head-to-head matchup, too.

Since the start of the '22-23 season, the under is 8-1 in Mavericks/Clippers games. This is the lowest total of that bunch, but even at this number the under is 5-4.

Doncic might seem like a guy who'd help Dallas hit a lot of overs, but that hasn't been the case this year. In Mavericks games, the under is 48-36 (57.1%).

At home, the Mavs are hitting the under at an even higher clip (25-16, 61.0%).

Picks as of 10:00 a.m. on 04/26/2024.