The NBA's Eastern Conference play-in begins when the Philadelphia 76ers host the Miami Heat on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 since Joel Embiid returned on April 2. The reigning MVP will suit up on Wednesday but I'm looking to Tyrese Maxey in the prop market and am also taking the over.

Check out these Heat vs. 76ers picks for their play-in tournament matchup on April 17.

Heat vs. 76ers picks

Best Bet: Maxey over 29.5 points and assists (-127)

Maxey has turned into a very consistent player but the point guard is at his best when Embiid is in the lineup.

Just take a look at his splits with and without the reigning MVP this season, via StatMuse:

The points + assist totals are nearly identical (32.4 with Embiid, 31.9 without Embiid) but the difference in field goal and 3-point efficiency is hard to ignore.

Miami will likely throw the kitchen sink at Embiid defensively. That means Maxey should have Grade-A opportunities to extinguish the Heat.

And that's exactly what happened on April 4.

Maxey put up 37 points and 11 assists in Miami while Embiid added 29 points of his own in a four-point win.

That marked the third straight game in which Maxey had at least 37 points/assists versus the Heat.

Key stat: Maxey is averaging 27.3 points and 8.3 assists (35.6 PA) against Miami this season.

Quick pick

Over 207.5 points (-112): Miami and Philadelphia don't give up much defensively. Across the last 10 games, they own the two best defensive ratings in the NBA.

But this total is simply too low for me to ignore.

During that 10-game stretch, the Heat and 76ers have each gone over this number nine times. That includes Philadelphia's 109-105 win over Miami.

Three of the four meetings between these teams have gone over this number, with the exception being a 98-91 rock fight in March where Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid were sidelined.

Miami has the league's best road unders rate (65.8%), but 28 of its 41 road games went over this total.

Picks as of 2:12 p.m. on 04/16/2024.