Joel Embiid and the red-hot Philadelphia 76ers host the Miami Heat with a playoff berth on the line.

The pregame narrative: I'm fading Embiid but backing the Sixers to come out with a win on Thursday night. This +400 parlay also has props on Jimmy Butler and Buddy Hield.

Check out the full Heat vs. 76ers SGP picks for their play-in tournament matchup on April 17.

Heat vs. 76ers SGP picks

Parlay: 76ers -2.5 + Embiid under 32.5 points + Hield over 1.5 threes + Butler under 6.5 assists (+400)

76ers -2.5 (-182): Philadelphia was already cruising, and then it welcomed the reigning MVP back into the lineup.

The 76ers are on a 10-game ATS win streak, as well as an eight-game win streak overall. And five of those recent wins have come with Embiid on the floor.

Philly is also 21-11 ATS as a home favourite this year. I've trimmed a few points off the top for some security.

These teams have played twice since March 18, and the Sixers won both by four-plus points. Each of Philly's wins during its current eight-game streak has covered a -2.5 spread, too.

Other parlay picks

Embiid under 32.5 points (-200): A win for the 76ers doesn't guarantee a big night for the reigning scoring champ.

Embiid has hit this under in four of five games since returning from injury, which includes a matchup against the Heat.

You might think his numbers are down because he's ramping back up from a two-month absence. And maybe so. But Embiid has struggled to score against Miami over the past several matchups.

Squaring off with future U.S. Olympic teammate Bam Adebayo, Embiid has gone under this total in 10 straight games against the Heat (dating back to the 2021-22 season, including playoffs).

Hield over 1.5 threes (-159): This pick isn't too far out of range to be considered as a single, and I like packaging it with this SGP.

Hield has cashed the over on this threes prop in 24 of 32 games with the 76ers. He's averaging 2.6 makes on 38.9% 3-point shooting with his new team.

The Bahamian sharpshooter has canned threes at a 40.0% clip in his career. His starter's minutes have gone away, but he's still averaging 5.5 attempts beyond the arc since moving to the bench.

Butler under 6.5 assists (-240): This line is too high for Butler on an average night, and I think he'll be even less likely to pass the rock with a playoff spot at stake.

Butler is averaging 5.0 assists this season and has gone under this number in 45 of 60 games. He's the team's leading passer, but four of his teammates average 3.9 APG or more, so it's not like the Heat are necessarily reliant on his playmaking.

Dating back to March 2022, Butler has finished below 6.5 assists in 10 of 12 games against Philadelphia.

Picks as of 2:50 p.m. on 04/17/2024.