I've got a plus-money pick for both of Thursday's night games from the MLB schedule.

The pregame narrative: Logan Webb faces the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and that should result in a low strikeout total for the right-hander. I'm also backing the Chicago Cubs to score first tonight against a pitcher who has struggled mightily in the early going.

Check out my MLB best bets for April 14.

MLB best bets

Best Bet: Webb under 4.5 Ks (+110)

Webb has danced around this number all year, and tonight there's some solid value in fading this total.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are an exceptionally difficult matchup for pitcher props. Perhaps the worst in the league, in fact.

Here's how the D-backs rank in some key strikeout-related stats:

• 17.0% K rate (1st)
• 86.4% zone contact rate (1st)
• 20.4% whiff rate (1st)
• 25.6% chase rate (4th)
• 61.4% chase contact rate (2nd)

According to Baseball Savant, Webb ranks in the fifth percentile for whiff rate (16.1%) and the 22nd percentile for K rate (17.0%).

He throws his changeup and sweeper about 60% of the time, relying on offspeed deception rather than overpowering velocity. That strategy isn't likely to work against Arizona.

Last year, Webb saw the D-backs four times. He finished with exactly five Ks in two of those outings and hit the under in his other two.

Through four starts this year, he's also maxed out at five strikeouts. In a brutal matchup, Webb is worth fading.

Key stat: Arizona has only struck out 6.7 times per game this season.

Quick picks

Cubs first team to score (+112): It's early, but the A.J. Puk starter experiment is really not working.

Puk, who had 15 saves for the Marlins across 58 relief appearances, is trying his hand as a big-league starter for the first time this year. Through three outings, the five-year vet has a 5.91 ERA that is probably even worse than it looks.

Puk has pitched 10.2 innings and walked 14 batters. Last year, he only walked 13 batters — over 56.2 innings.

All three of Puk's opponents have scored first. The risk here is that the Cubs are at home and thus will bat second. But I still like their chances of plating the first run.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 04/18/2024.