After three straight series wins at home, the Toronto Blue Jays had on a happy flight to San Diego to embark on a West Coast trip.

Still, at 10-9 as of Thursday, the Jays are tied for last in the AL East. So there's some bad mixed in with the good.

Check out the season's first edition of Blue Jays betting trends, featuring key stats covering the first three weeks of the year.

Blue Jays betting trends

The bullpen has struggled, but...

It's early.

Jordan Romano's red-light display at Rogers Centre was just activated for the first time on Tuesday, as he came in to shut the door on the Yankees in his season debut.

Erik Swanson (2.97 ERA last year) had a far bumpier '24 debut a day later, but one appearance isn't enough to judge anybody.

Toronto needs its bullpen to be a plus. And with most of last year's group back in the stable, that should happen.

Last year's relief corps amassed 557.0 innings, and 82.6% of that workload has been retained.

In '23, the Blue Jays ranked eighth in ERA (3.68) and top five in both K/9 (9.8) and BB/9 (3.1). Here's how they're faring in those metrics so far in the new season:

• 5.53 ERA (27th)
• 8.1 K/9 (19th)
• 4.0 BB/9 (21st)

Losing to the Yankees via a bullpen collapse is painful, but this group needs more time to work back toward its previous form.

Good or bad, any mid-April bullpen takes are speculative at best.

New pitch mix is working for La Makina

Jose Berrios hasn't missed a start in seven years. And aside from a nightmarish '22 campaign, his ERA has finished between 3.50 and 4.00 in every full season.

That kind of consistency is admirable — and it can be helpful for bettors. Something is different about Berrios this season, though, and that's worth paying attention to as well.

Berrios has a 1.05 ERA through four starts. That's a tiny sample, mind you, but look at how his pitch mix has changed:

As Baseball Savant shows here, Berrios is using his sinker and slurve more than ever before.

Consequently, his four-seam usage is at an all-time low and his changeup usage is at its lowest point since 2018.

The slurve has typically been his best pitch. Opponents have a .201/.240/.337 slash line against it since 2020. So it makes sense to bump up the usage and see what happens.

In the very short term, Berrios has a career-high 42.9% whiff rate on his slurve. His strikeout numbers haven't been explosive (21 Ks in 25.2 innings), but this is something to monitor.

Blue Jays betting trends: Who's hot, who's not

Daulton Varsho: Is Varsho matchup-proof? Of course not. But it was still nice to see him homer in a lefty-lefty matchup on Wednesday. That was only his second home run against an LHP since 2021.

In his past five starts, Varsho has cashed the over on his run prop and bases prop four times apiece. He's typically a bottom-third hitter, but maybe that will change.

Kevin Gausman: Gausman is a mix of hot and not.

His 8.16 ERA through four starts is obviously an eyesore, but he looked sharpest in his most recent outing.

On Wednesday, Gausman tossed five innings of one-run ball and regained his velocity, touching 97.9 mph on the radar gun.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Guerrero's willingness to draw a walk is helping his run-scoring potential, but it hasn't paid off yet.

Guerrero walked five times over three games in the Yankees series. He's now reached base 11 times in his past six games but has only scored once in that span.

From the No. 2 spot in the lineup, that seems like an anomaly.

Quick hits

• Toronto's yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) rate is 21.1%, tied for 19th in the majors

• On the run line, the Jays are 6-3 ATS as favourites and 4-6 ATS as underdogs

• As the road team, the Jays are 1-7-2 on the F5 moneyline

• Since the start of last season, Chris Bassitt has a 2.71 ERA at home (19 starts) and a 4.80 ERA on the road (18 starts)