Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports. When players suffer injuries, whether major or minor, it changes the landscape of the league.
It impacts statistical output, wins and losses. And not just for the injured player and their team, but often for an entire playoff race. This means an injury can also impact betting, both in the short term and on the futures market.
With that in mind, let's look at the latest MLB injury report and see what it means for baseball bettors.
MLB injury report: The Atlanta Braves
You've heard by now that reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL and is done for the year. That's such a bummer, especially given that he was coming off a record-breaking 40/70 year.
Prior to the season, the Atlanta Braves had the second-best odds of winning the World Series. Now, Acuna and Spencer Strider (elbow) are done for the year, though the team has only fallen to third on the World Series odds board (tied with the Philadelphia Phillies at +600 as of June 3).
I would not be looking to take that bet just yet, but I'd be interested if the odds continue to get longer.
Acuna's injury likely paves the way for the Phillies, already ahead in the NL East battle, to win the division, and they will likely battle the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the National League.
If you actually fear teams getting a bye (I don't), that may be a reason to steer clear. Atlanta will likely still grab a wild-card spot, though, and don't forget that when Acuna tore his ACL in 2021, Atlanta went on to win the World Series without him.
Padres a surprise team?
When the San Diego Padres went all-in, part of that was signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal.
Even though the Padres traded Juan Soto away to the New York Yankees this winter, they poached two-time batting champ Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins, making this all feel more like a recalibration than a capitulation.
If the season ended today, the Padres would have a wild-card spot, but the expectation is that Bogaerts will be out into August with a broken shoulder.
Bogaerts debuted with San Diego last season, batting .280 with 19 homers, 19 stolen bases and posting 4.7 fWAR. Could his absence lead to the Padres falling behind the San Francisco Giants in their own division, or the (slumping) Chicago Cubs and (surging) St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central?
Well... maybe not.
Bogaerts was still doing well in the field and on the base paths, but he was having the worst hitting season of his career. Through 47 games, he had a 0.4 fWAR but the Padres were still prevailing.
They remain a long shot to win the National League West, the pennant and World Series but don't get discouraged about any Padres futures bets because of this.
In terms of long shot bets in the NL, they are my favourite.
MLB injury report: Short hoppers
The Phillies: Ranger Suarez, an early favourite for the NL Cy Young award thanks to his 1.70 ERA through 12 starts, took a comebacker off his hand Saturday.
Fortunately, his X-rays came back negative, so any Cy Young bets related to him remain safe, but his pitching hand is swollen, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't miss a start or two.
Keep an eye on the Phillies' rotation. If they have to call up a Triple-A pitcher or try to swing a bullpen game in Suarez's absence, that could be a good chance to bet against the team with the best record in baseball.
Suarez's next start is scheduled to be against the New York Mets in London. But if he misses more time, the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles loom after the Phillies return from England.
The Red Sox: Vaughn Grissom, who admittedly wasn't hitting well but still was Boston's starting shortstop, is the latest Red Sox player to hit the IL after straining his hamstring Saturday against the Detroit Tigers.
The oft-injured Tyler O'Neill (knee) is there again, as are Triston Casas (ribs), Trevor Story (shoulder), Masataka Yoshida (thumb) and Garrett Whitlock (elbow). It seems like a good time to bet against the banged-up Red Sox.
This run of injuries may also push the Red Sox out of the playoff race, which is good news for anyone who bet on the Minnesota Twins or Houston Astros before the season.
Those teams' slow starts mean they're facing more of a battle to get into the postseason than expected, but Boston could fall out of the playoff picture fast.