Even though it's an abbreviated MLB slate on Thursday, I've got three prop bets to share.
The pregame narrative: In the afternoon, Luis Gil has a solid chance to clear his outs prop amid an extended stretch of quality work. Later on, I'm tailing Alec Burleson and fading Luis Arraez on their respective bases props.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Thursday, June 20.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Gil over 17.5 outs (-118)
After playing an extra-inning game last night, the New York Yankees could use a lengthy outing from their ace.
No, not Gerrit Cole (though he did finally make his season debut on Wednesday). This year, the ace of the Yankees' deep staff is Gil.
The odds-on favourite to win AL Rookie of the Year leads the league in ERA (2.03) and has held opponents to a .142 batting average.
Gil missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Understandably, New York slow-played his workload a bit to start the year.
In April, Gil collected fewer than 17.5 outs in all five starts. But since then, he's hit this over in seven of nine.
That stretch began with a road start against the Baltimore Orioles, who Gil will see this afternoon. On May 1, Gil allowed just two hits over 6.1 scoreless innings against the O's.
The Yankees used six relievers last night, so a deep outing from Gil would provide a nice boost before they open a new series tomorrow.
Key stat: Gil has averaged 18.4 outs per start since May began, and he's coming off a career-high 104 pitches.
Quick picks
Arraez under 1.5 bases (-136): Arraez's batted-ball profile is unlike anyone else in the majors.
He's as good as it gets at making contact and squaring the ball up. But he seldom hits the ball hard, thus settling for singles most of the time.
With that in mind, Arraez usually needs multiple hits to collect multiple bases. And I'm content to fade him at this price.
Arraez has gone under this total in 15 of his past 25 games, batting .299 with a .336 SLG.
Burleson over 1.5 bases (+106): San Francisco Giants starter Keaton Winn is in a spiral right now, so I'm looking to back someone on the St. Louis Cardinals' side.
Why not Burleson? He bats second in the St. Louis lineup and has been clubbing the ball quite a bit lately.
Over his past 16 starts, Burleson has cashed this bet nine times while posting a .500 SLG. With one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (3.8%, fifth percentile), he should at least give himself a chance to clear this total by going to the plate ready to hack.
Winn has allowed a .342/.415/.683 slash line to opposing hitters over his past five starts.
Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 06/20/2024.
