If you're just tuning in, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on a rocky road all season. They're in the basement of the AL East and have the seventh-worst run differential in the majors.

Toronto (35-39) is barrelling toward the midway point of the season. And the trade deadline is only five weeks away. Unless the Jays turn things around soon, some franchise-altering decisions could be on the horizon.

In this edition of Blue Jays betting trends, we'll take a peek at the team's playoff odds and highlight how some of the younger, lesser-known players are making their mark.

Blue Jays betting trends

Playoff odds check-in

At NorthStar, the Blue Jays held -150 odds to make the playoffs when the season began. That equated to a 60.0% implied probability.

Staring down a gauntlet of a division, and coming off a dull offseason, that projection seemed a bit lofty to me. And the Jays' playoff hopes have crated in the months since.

FanGraphs had the Blue Jays at a 49.0% chance to make the playoffs in late March. Now, that mark is down to 10.9% — the lowest in the division.

Baseball Reference is even more pessimistic, estimating just a 3.5% playoff chance for the Blue Jays.

Entering Thursday's off-day, the Blue Jays are 5.5 games out of a wild-card spot. That might not seem like much, but the logjam of mediocre ballclubs is real. Toronto is one of six AL teams sitting 6.5 games or fewer outside the playoff picture.

Another way to illustrate where the Jays are at is to look at how their division and pennant odds have shifted.

In the preseason, Toronto had +410 odds to win the AL East and +900 odds to win the AL. Now they're +15,000 long shots to win the division and +4,000 to clinch the pennant.

October might seem like it's ages away, but there's an inflection point coming much sooner: the trade deadline.

If the front office commits to it, Toronto has enough talent to make some splashy moves. And in a year with so many teams mired in the middle, the Jays could capitalize on a sellers' market.

The Jays' next three series are against two division leaders (Guardians, Yankees) and a team that just swept them (Red Sox). That stretch could give Toronto some newfound hope — or bury the squad altogether.

New-look Blue Jays

When looking at Blue Jays prop markets, it makes sense to gravitate to household names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer.

But Vladdy has cooled a bit recently, Bichette is hurt and Springer's production has fallen off a cliff.

As the Blue Jays scrape for offence, a trio of lesser-known players have emerged. And produced.

Check out what Addison Barger (recently recalled), Ernie Clement and Spencer Horwitz have accomplished in the past two weeks:

• Barger (4 games): .429/.467/.500 slash line, 3 runs, 2 RBI
• Clement (11 games): .480/.500/.800 slash line, 5 runs, 6 RBI
• Horwitz (10 games): .353/.450/.412 slash line, 3 runs, 3 RBI

Barger and Horwitz began the year with Triple-A Buffalo, while Clement has spent the entire season bouncing in and out of Toronto's big-league lineup.

And all three are hitting their way into the Jays' batting order right now.

One challenge to Blue Jays prop betting right now is John Schneider's constant tinkering with the lineup. Each of their past eight lineups has been different.

Horwitz has batted leadoff in seven of his nine starts, though, so it'd make sense to see him stick up there for at least a little while longer. Barger and Clement, meanwhile, tend to hit in the bottom half.

Either way, checking Toronto's lineup before placing any prop bets is a good way to make a better informed wager.

Blue Jays betting trends: Who's hot, who's not

Chris Bassitt: April was a rough month for Bassitt, but now he's really shoving every fifth day.

In nine starts since May 1, Bassitt has a 2.33 ERA and 2.72 FIP. He's not a high-volume strikeout producer, but he has five-plus Ks in seven of his past eight.

The best way to tail Bassitt might be to back Toronto on the F5 moneyline. Bassitt is on a nine-start streak of allowing three or fewer runs.

Kevin Gausman: Gausman's recent performance has varied greatly based on the quality of his opponent.

Since May began, Gausman has made five starts against non-playoff teams and four starts against playoff teams (based on the standings entering June 20). Here's how he's fared:

• Versus non-playoff teams: 1.39 ERA, 10.3 K/9
• Versus playoff teams: 8.41 ERA, 8.4 K/9

The sample size is tiny, but it's something to follow. If Gausman is facing a feeble opponent, he's capable of keeping them down. But quality lineups are roughing him up right now.

Danny Jansen: Earlier in the season, Jansen earned a promotion to the No. 2 spot in Toronto's order. But he might not hold that spot for long.

In 14 games (11 starts) this month, Jansen has a .136/.235/.182 slash line with just two extra-base hits and three runs scored.

Given that nine of his 11 starts came from the No. 2 hole, a total of three runs scored is unacceptable. He hasn't been playable on bases, runs or RBI props so far in June.

Quick hits

• Toronto's yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) rate is 13.5%, the lowest in the majors

• On the run line, the Jays are 21-25 ATS as favourites (11th in MLB) and 13-15 ATS as underdogs (28th)

• The F5 under is 23-14 in Toronto's road games and 43-31 overall

• The under is 26-19-1 when Toronto is favoured