Tonight's MLB prop bets feature Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Javier Assad.
The pregame narrative: Tatis, who plays in the final game of the night, is riding a nice hit streak and should have a solid chance to score. For plus-money plays, I'm looking at Soto to go over 1.5 bases and Assad to collect at least six strikeouts.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 6.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Soto over 1.5 bases (+110)
Soto is playing at an MVP level this season, which includes leading the American League in batting (.319) and posting the second-highest OPS (1.027).
His plate discipline is elite, as is his bat speed, his contact, and his power. Frankly, there are very few holes in Soto's game.
From a betting standpoint, though, his hit rate on over 1.5 bases isn't as high as you might expect. He's cashed that prop in 30 of 63 games (47.6%). Solid, but not stupendous.
The reason it isn't higher is because Soto draws a ton of walks (44 so far, which is fourth-most in MLB). We need hits, not walks, to cash this bet.
I like tonight's matchup for Soto because Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez rarely issues free passes. His 4.0% walk rate ranks in the 93rd percentile in MLB.
As long as Lopez stays in the zone, Soto should have a great opportunity to hit this over. And it helps to know that the star outfielder has thrived in this matchup already.
Soto is 10-for-30 with three doubles and three homers against Lopez, per Baseball Savant.
Key stat: In his past 20 games, Soto has cashed this bases prop 11 times while posting a 1.200 OPS.
Quick picks
Assad over 5.5 Ks (+150): Assad doesn't have top-notch velocity or swing-and-miss stuff, but I am still intrigued by his strikeout potential in tonight's matchup against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (24.7%). They've struck out 9.1 times per game this year.
Assad had seven Ks over 5.1 innings against the Reds in his most recent start, and he now has seven-plus strikeouts in three of his past four outings.
Since entering the league in 2022, Assad has faced the Reds four times and cashed this prop three times.
Tatis over 0.5 runs (-109): Tatis is on an 11-game hit streak right now and has raised his batting average 33 points in the process.
And as he looks to keep the hot streak alive, he'll face a pitcher he took deep just last month.
On May 3, Tatis had two hits off Arizona Diamondbacks starter Slade Cecconi and one of them left the yard. The outfielder finished 3-for-5 with two runs on the night.
Tatis has now scored in 11 of his past 19 games.
Against Cecconi, who has a 5.59 ERA in six starts, I like his chances of crossing the plate again.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 06/06/2024.