After losing a pair of tight games on home court to open the Western Conference finals, the Minnesota Timberwolves are practically in must-win mode tonight.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is a slight road underdog on Sunday against the Dallas Mavericks, and I'm backing the T-Wolves to at least keep things close. In somewhat contradictory fashion, I'm fading Anthony Edwards and tailing Luka Doncic in the prop market.

Check out the full Timberwolves vs. Mavericks SGP picks for Game 3 on Sunday, May 26.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks SGP picks

Parlay: Timberwolves +4.5 + Edwards over 28.5 points + Doncic over 2.5 threes (+350)

Timberwolves +4.5 (-162): Minnesota has been a dogged road team this postseason, collecting five straight-up wins as an underdog.

I don't hate a moneyline play on the T-Wolves for tonight, but this number feels much cozier for a parlay.

Minnesota has covered a +4.5 spread in both games so far this series, losing by just four total points in those matchups. And the team has a remarkable road net rating in the postseason (+7.8).

Conversely, Dallas failed to cover a -4.5 spread in all three home matchups during the conference semis. The team has only covered this number in two of its past eight games overall.

Minnesota should be hungry tonight, but that's obvious. This pick is more about the fact that the Timberwolves have played two ultra-tight games so far in this series and have been dynamite on the road.

Other parlay picks

Edwards under 28.5 points (-182): Minnesota needs more from Ant Man to get back in this series, but he can be a lot better and still fall below this point total.

Minnesota's young star scored 19 points on 6-of-16 shooting in Game 1. He followed that with 21 points on 5-of-17 shooting in Game 2 (aided by 10 free throw attempts).

Edwards is now in a three-game stretch in which he's shooting just 29.8% from the floor on 19.0 attempts. For a guy who's capable of going for 40-plus points, this is the painful opposite end of the spectrum.

In the postseason, Edwards has attempted 35.0% of his shots at the rim, which ranks in the 100th percentile of all playoff players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Among all playoff teams, Dallas has held opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage from that area of the court (56.7%).

Additionally, Edwards has gone under 28.5 points in seven of his past eight games.

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-250): Doncic went through a multi-week cold spell as a 3-point shooter earlier in the postseason, but it seems he's putting that behind him.

Doncic has shot 17-of-38 (44.7%) from deep over his last four games, cashing this prop all four times.

A key aspect of Doncic's scoring title this season was the fact that he shot a career-high 10.6 threes per game — and converted them at a career-best 38.2% clip.

Including the playoffs and the regular season, Doncic has gone over 2.5 threes in 73.8% of his games this year.

Picks as of 11:20 a.m. on 05/26/2024.