Denis Shapovalov's run at the French Open begins with a match against Luca Van Assche.

The pregame narrative: Shapovalov and Van Assche are both struggling to get results on the clay courts. The former is the favourite, however, which presents value on the latter. I'm backing Van Assche to cover the game spread in the Round of 128.

Check out our Van Assche vs. Shapovalov odds and best bet for their French Open match on May 27.

Van Assche vs. Shapovalov French Open odds

Best Bet: Van Assche +2.5 games (-110)

Betting on Shapovalov to win a clay-court match as a favourite is a tall ask.

Wagering on him to win by margin on the surface is more than I'm comfortable doing.

The Canadian hasn't posted a winning record on clay since going a pedestrian 7-6 in 2021.

He's an underwhelming 10-12 since and is in the midst of arguably his worst season on the surface. Shapovalov is 3-5 on clay this year.

Historically, the French Open is the Grand Slam event where he has had the least amount of success. It's the only major that Shapovalov has failed to qualify for the quarterfinals at.

Van Assche isn't anything to write home about on the clay courts, either. The young French star is 2-4 on the surface this year and will be appearing at just his seventh Grand Slam event.

But he will have the home crowd cheering him on and that could be a significant advantage against an emotionally-charged competitor like Shapovalov.

Van Assche has won two of his last four clay matches. I expect him to keep this contest close and cover this spread at the very least.

Key stat: Shapovalov has lost three of his last four clay matches, failing to cover this spread in six of eight clay-court matches in 2024.

Picks made as of 2:36 p.m. on 05/25/24.