The Toronto Blue Jays aim for a tidy series win over the San Diego Padres on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios takes the mound and that gives Toronto a pitching edge. The visitors are my moneyline pick in this contest. The under is my play on the total considering the Blue Jays tend to win low-event games.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Padres for April 20.

Blue Jays picks vs. Padres

Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-110)

Berrios' excellence is hard to fade as he heads into his fifth start of the season.

His first four outings have been superb. Toronto is a perfect 4-0 behind him and he enters Saturday's contest with a stellar 1.05 ERA and .202 opponent batting average.

Berrios has pitched at least six innings in all four of his appearances.

He's been especially dominant since his first outing of the season. Berrios has only allowed one run across his last 19.2 innings pitched, holding the opposition to a .179 batting average.

His ability to work deep into games takes pressure off a Blue Jays bullpen that hasn't been hot. Toronto ranks 23rd in bullpen ERA (5.16).

Randy Vásquez goes for San Diego and he's making his first appearance of the season. The ex-New York Yankee pitcher only tossed 37.2 innings across 11 outings last year and although he did post a 2.87 ERA, he paired it with a concerning 4.98 FIP.

I'll take the more established arm that's dominating in this one.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games.

Quick pick

Under 8 runs (-124): Toronto doesn't get itself into many shootouts.

The team's largely unaddressed offensive issues are carrying over from 2023. The Blue Jays place an uninspiring 17th in OPS (.696) and are 21st in runs (78).

The under on eight runs has hit in four of Toronto's last five wins.

Low-scoring games have been commonplace with Berrios on the mound. Each of his last three outings has gone under this mark.

A long outing from Berrios means less work for Toronto's bullpen, which is a plus for this wager.

San Diego's offence is its driving force, so when it loses, it's usually because it fails to deliver on that side of the ball.

The Padres have scored two runs or fewer in each of their last eight losses.

Picks made at 11:51 a.m. on 04/20/24.