Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles are in town to open a four-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman faces his old club, pitching opposite former No. 1 prospect Grayson Rodriguez. I'm fading Rodriguez's strikeouts prop tonight while tailing George Springer and Ryan Mountcastle to provide offence.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles for June 3.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

Best Bet: Rodriguez under 5.5 Ks (-118)

Rodriguez tallied a season-high 10 strikeouts in his most recent start. Through nine outings, he's hit the over on this line in seven times.

So why the fade? Well, context matters, and the young righty has faced a bunch of free-swinging clubs that don't resemble the Blue Jays.

Toronto has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (19.4%) and the second-lowest whiff rate (22.0%).

Rodriguez went over 5.5 Ks against the Angels (twice), Red Sox, Pirates, Mariners, Twins and White Sox. All of those teams have higher-than-average K rates, and five of them are inside the top 10.

Toronto also has a higher walk rate than any of those clubs — 9.5%, fourth in MLB — and Rodriguez has struggled with free passes. His 9.6% walk rate ranks in the 32nd percentile among pitchers, per Baseball Savant.

Last year, Rodriguez went over this Ks line in two of three starts against Toronto, landing on exactly six strikeouts in both instances.

But ex-Blue Jays Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt played quite a hand in that, striking out in five of 15 plate appearances against him.

I expect a more disciplined lineup to keep Rodriguez under this total tonight.

Key stat: Rodriguez's best swing-and-miss pitch has been his slider, which is new this year. Toronto has the fourth-lowest whiff rate on sliders, per Baseball Savant.

Quick picks

Mountcastle over 1.5 bases (+100): Mountcastle feels at home inside Rogers Centre. Or at least he plays like he does.

In 22 career games inside The Dome, Mountcastle has a .333/.404/.642 slash line. Last year, he went 12-for-25 (.480) with five extra-base hits in just seven games.

The first baseman is riding a mini hot streak right now, too, with a 1.157 OPS over his past 10 starts. He's cashed this bases prop seven times in that span.

Mountcastle has had as much success against Gausman as anyone on the Orioles, going 6-for-14 with a double.

Springer over 0.5 runs (+175): Springer used to be the Blue Jays' leadoff man, and his price to score a run used to hover around even money — or worse.

Those were the old days, though, and now part of the equation with this run price is the fact Springer bats in the bottom half of the lineup.

Still, after a remarkable week in which he led the majors in on-base percentage (.556), I'll happily take the plunge. Springer reached base 15 times over six games last week and scored seven runs.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 06/03/24.