Blue Jays picks and props vs. Dodgers: April 26 | NorthStar Bets

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Dodgers April 26: Back Betts, fade Bassitt in Friday's series opener

The Blue Jays host the Dodgers for a three-game set at Rogers Centre starting Friday night. Photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP.

Chris Toman

@Chris_Toman

April 26, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set versus Shohei Ohtani and the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers at Rogers Centre on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt gets the difficult assignment and I don't expect him to work deep against one of MLB's most prolific offences. Los Angeles' lineup is led by Mookie Betts, who has value on his total bases prop.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Dodgers for April 26.

Blue Jays picks vs. Dodgers

Best bet: Bassitt under 17.5 outs (-121)

Bassitt is a workhorse who's coming off a 200-inning season and has cleared this line in two of his last three starts.

But Los Angeles is a powerhouse and it's risky to back any pitcher against this club, which averages 5.2 runs per game (seventh in baseball).

The Dodgers particularly destroy right-handers, which isn't surprising considering some of their most dangerous bats are lefties with pronounced platoon splits — Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy.

Check out some of the Dodgers' numbers and MLB ranks versus RHPs after 27 games:

128 wRC+ (2nd)
11.2 BB% (2nd)
.355 OBP (2nd)
.453 SLG (3rd)
25 home runs (4th)
.270 average (4th)

That's a nightmare. As you can see, the Dodgers hit for average and power. The team has strong on-base skills aided by exceptional plate discipline.

More than half the hitters in their lineup are above the league-average mark in walk rate and OPS, and six are north of 120 in wRC+.

Bassitt has walked multiple batters in all five of his starts (he has a career-high BB%) and he's surrendered a homer in all but one. His home run/fly ball rate is also the highest of his career.

That's not a strong recipe against this group.

Key stat: Right-handed starters are 1-16 against this line versus the Dodgers this season.

Quick pick

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-112): It's often difficult to find good pricing on Dodgers player props, but this looks like excellent value for the club's leadoff man.

Betts is the MLB leader in average (.374) and OPS (1.112), and he's second to only Ohtani in total bases.

While Ohtani has more pop and gets the lefty-on-righty matchup, he comes at a -134 price compared to Betts at -112.

Betts has hit righties just as well as lefties this season and did last year, too. For his career, he's a .295 hitter with an .897 OPS against RHPs (.298, .926 versus LHPs).

The superstar is 2-for-13 against Bassitt for his career but has only struck out twice and has a career-low K rate this year.

Following Bassitt is a Jays bullpen that has the highest home run rate in MLB and the fifth-worst ERA.

Picks made at 11:47 a.m. on 04/26/24.

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