For the second time in less than a week, Jose Berrios goes to work against the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: Berrios battles Kansas City's Cole Ragans, who got the win in a rain-shortened outing against Toronto last week. I'm fading first inning offence, as well as Bo Bichette, but I think Davis Schneider has good value to record a hit.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for April 30.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best Bet: Schneider over 0.5 hits (-139)

When a player has odds of -140 or longer to get a hit, I'm typically inclined to dig a little deeper. And with Schneider, I like what I see.

Schneider posted a two-hit night last night and is now batting 8-for-27 (.296) over his past nine starts. He has a hit in seven of those games.

The rookie-eligible utilityman has had five plate appearances against Ragans, going 0-for-1 with four walks. That includes two walks in as many PAs last week.

Walks are no good for us here, but you could argue that means Schneider is seeing the ball well in this lefty-righty matchup. If Ragans actually gives him something to hit, I expect Schneider to pounce.

In the very early stages of 2024, Schneider hasn't taken advantage of lefty-righty matchups (he's 2-for-18, but both hits were home runs). Last year, though, he batted .326 against LHPs while posting a 1.300 OPS in 54 plate appearances.

Schneider's discerning eye against Ragans should help. And the recent run of good form is a plus, too. At this price, I'm buying in.

Key stat: Ragans is allowing a .265 expected batting average, which ranks in the 29th percentile, per Baseball Savant. He has allowed 27 hits over his past 17.2 innings.

Quick picks

Under 0.5 runs - first inning (-120): The Blue Jays scored twice in the first inning last night, but that is far from their norm.

Toronto hadn't scored a first-inning run in any of its previous eight games. On the season, the Jays' yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) rate is just 23.3%, per Team Rankings.

Kansas City is among the top YRFI teams in baseball, but even so, the Royals' YRFI rate is only 36.7%.

Both Ragans and Jose Berrios have held their opponents scoreless in the first inning in four of their six starts. This is a fair price to bet on that happening again.

Parlay: Bichette under 1.5 bases, Berrios over 17.5 outs (+155): Bichette is in a tough spot overall, and he's staring down an unpleasant matchup.

Over his past six games, the shortstop is 2-for-22 (.091) with a pair of singles. He's gone under 1.5 bases in all six games. He's also 0-for-6 with three strikeouts against Ragans.

I definitely want to fade Bichette, who owns just a .305 slugging percentage — 151st among 182 qualified hitters. But the -162 juice on his bases prop is a bit much.

So let's toss in Berrios' outs prop, shall we?

Berrios went over 17.5 outs in each of his first five starts this season, and he averaged 17.9 outs per game last season.

A rain-shortened start against the Royals last time out held Berrios under this outs total, but he was only at 67 pitches through five innings. This is a very comfortable line for the right-hander.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 04/30/24.