The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins clash on Saturday night in a series-defining Game 4 showdown.

The pregame narrative: The gap between Toronto and Boston is small, but the latter's edge between the pipes makes it my moneyline pick. Goals are not coming easy, which is why the under remains an attractive wager. Thirdly, I'm looking for Brad Marchand to find the score sheet.

Check out the full Bruins vs. Maple Leafs same-game parlay predictions for Game 4.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Parlay: Bruins moneyline + Under 6.5 goals + Marchand to score 1+ points (+370)

Bruins moneyline (+100): These teams are as evenly matched as it gets.

Don't agree with me? That's fine because the numbers do. Boston has the slightest of edges in expected goals per 60 (3.76 - 3.74) in this series, according to Natural Stat Trick.

But there is one area where the Bruins hold a distinctive advantage and that's in net.

Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have been sensational. They've given Boston the best save percentage of the postseason (.940).

Swayman, specifically, has been extraordinary in his outings against the Maple Leafs. He's only allowed seven goals in five games this season.

Ilya Samsonov was assailed by doubts following Game 1 but he's been solid since. Even still, a weak goal by Travis Frederic in Game 3 proved to be a difference-maker.

The margins are thin. Take the team with the better goaltender.

Other parlay picks

Under 6.5 goals (-143): Neither team wants to make a mistake in this series.

Toronto, specifically, has been very good at preventing Boston from registering quality looks. The Bruins are tied for the fewest high-danger chances per 60 (9.0) in the playoffs.

The Maple Leafs' biggest issue has been an underperforming power play. They've gone a putrid 1-for-11 on the man advantage in this series including an 0-for-5 effort in Game 3.

Head-to-head matchups between these squads have skewed to the under, too. Six of the seven meetings between Boston and Toronto have gone under this total.

Marchand to score 1+ points (-180): Marchand has officially entered this series.

Boston's captain was fairly quiet through the first two games. He had three points but wasn't affecting the game the way fans and bettors have come to expect.

The pesky forward broke out in Game 3, though. He had two goals — including the game-winner — and an assist in the 4-2 victory.

His ability, and Boston's, to excel on the man advantage is the biggest plus for this wager. Five of Marchand's six points have come on the power play.

Picks as of 10:44 a.m. on 04/27/2024.