Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks Game 1: Bet on Indiana to cover alt spread, Lillard from deep at +375
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Lillard averaged 8.5 3PA per game. Photo by Jeff Chiu/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 21, 2024

The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks begin their series and the star of the show could be sidelined.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is listed as doubtful as of 10:00 a.m. That has me backing Indiana to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard.

Check out the full Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks for Game 1 of their first-round matchup on April 21.

Pacers vs. Bucks SGP picks

Parlay: Pacers +5.5 + Haliburton over 19.5 points + Lillard over 3.5 threes (+375)

Pacers +5.5 (-278): Will Giannis play? That's anyone's guess.

Reports throughout the week indicated that the two-time MVP wouldn't be ready for the start of the series but his "upgrade" to doubtful on the injury report adds a slight wrinkle to that.

I'm obviously more bullish on this wager if he's sidelined but am still happy to back the Pacers on an alternate spread if he suits up.

Indiana went 4-1 against its divisional rival this year while averaging 128.8 points per game.

Pascal Siakam wasn't on the team for any of those games and the team ranks second in offensive rating (119.3) since his acquisition on January 18.

Keeping up with an offence like that is tough, and could be nearly impossible if Giannis is out. He averaged 42.2 points per game against the Pacers this year.

Milwaukee has also been a mess since Doc Rivers took over as head coach. Under Rivers, the team is 17-19 with a +1.2 net rating.

Other parlay picks

Haliburton over 19.5 points (-134): Haliburton's production as a scorer was spotty this season, but his production against the Bucks wasn't.

The two-time all-star cleared this line in all five matchups against Milwaukee, averaging 27.0 points per game.

Jon Horst made waves in the offseason when he traded five-time all-defensive star Jrue Holiday for Lillard. That hasn't paid dividends yet considering the team has fallen off the map on defence.

The Bucks were a pedestrian 19th in defensive rating (115.0) and allowed the second-most points per game to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Lillard over 3.5 threes (+102): Lillard played four games against the Pacers this year and shot a combined 9-of-34 from deep (26.5%), clearing this total just once.

That's not great.

But Lillard is a proven playoff killer and should be forced to take over this game from a scoring standpoint.

The volume is certainly there for the Bucks' point guard to succeed. He attempts the fifth-most 3-pointers per game in the NBA (8.5) and is shooting 39.4% from deep in games with Giannis sidelined, per Fantasy Pros.

Picks as of 10:09 a.m. on 04/21/2024.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.