Pelicans vs. Thunder SGP picks Game 1: Back Chet Holmgren, Trey Murphy at +295
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Holmgren averaged 16.5 points per game this year. Photo by Nate Billings/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
April 21, 2024

The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder begin their title quest with a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The pregame narrative: New Orleans is without Zion Williamson, which has OKC heavily favoured at home. I'm teasing down the Thunder as home favourites and am backing Chet Holmgren and Trey Murphy in the prop market.

Check out the full Pelicans vs. Thunder SGP picks for Game 1 of their first-round matchup on April 21.

Pelicans vs. Thunder SGP picks

Parlay: Thunder -2.5 + Holmgren over 14.5 points + Murphy over 5.5 rebounds (+295)

Thunder -2.5 (-315): I wouldn't be surprised if the Pelicans made this a game. In fact, I backed them to cover a +10.5 alternate spread in Sunday's parlay picks.

Am I getting too cute trying to middle that with the Thunder -2.5 here? Maybe, but there's no law against it.

OKC was an impressive 23-12 ATS as a home favourite this season and covered this number in 30 of 41 games at Paycom Center (73.17%).

The team has won four straight games since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned from injury and each of those came by at least seven points.

The Thunder covered this mark in each of their last two games versus the Pelicans, including a 119-112 win on March 26.

Other parlay picks

Holmgren over 14.5 points (-167): New Orleans can be exposed inside.

The team allows the fifth-fewest paint points per game but it allows opponents to shoot 68.1% at the rim, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Teams don't try to go inside on the Pelicans too much. But when they do, it works.

Holmgren leads the Thunder in paint touches per game (4.4) and cleared this mark in all three meetings versus the Pels this season.

Shutting down SGA should be priority No. 1 for Willie Green and Co. and that should, in theory, allow Holmgren to get more looks.

Murphy over 5.5 rebounds (-148): Holmgren is a great scorer but he lacks the frame to be a true factor on the glass.

At 7-foot-1 and just 208 pounds, the sophomore centre isn't an imposing matchup. The Thunder sit 28th in rebounding rate (48.4%) and offensive rebounding rate (25.0%) as a result.

Murphy is my pick to have a big night on the glass.

The third-year swingman will slot into the No. 4 position with Williamson sidelined. On Friday, Murphy had six boards against the Sacramento Kings (ninth in rebound rate) while playing a team-high 43 minutes.

Murphy cleared this mark in five of eight games without Zion this year.

Picks as of 11:38 a.m. on 04/21/2024.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.