Timberwolves vs. Mavericks playoff props Game 3: Bet on Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively
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Bet on Doncic in Game 3. Photo by Abbie Parr/AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
May 25, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks are in total control of the Western Conference final.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic called game on Friday night to take a 2-0 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves. I'm backing him to clear his point/assist total at home and also expect Dereck Lively to have a big night.

Check out these Timberwolves vs. Mavericks props for Game 3 of the Western Conference finals.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks props

Best Bet: Doncic over 38.5 points and assists (-122)

Doncic has been ripping hearts out this postseason.

Dallas' series against the Oklahoma City Thunder was tied 2-2 and then Doncic dropped 31 and 29-point triple-doubles in consecutive games to eliminate the west's top seed.

In the series opener against the T-Wolves, 15 of Doncic's game-high 33 points came in the fourth quarter. He also had eight assists and led the Mavs to a 3-point win.

And on Friday night, the Slovenian superstar hit this shot to cap off a 32-point, 13-assist masterclass:

That marked Doncic's fourth consecutive game hitting the over on this total. But should we really be surprised? In the regular season, he led the league in scoring (33.1) and was second in assists (9.8).

Even with Doncic battling a few ailments I like him to keep things going on Sunday.

He is shooting 50.0% from the field and 44.7% from deep in his last four games while averaging a team-high 23.2 shots in the playoffs. There is no way that volume is going to decrease in Game 3.

And as a passer, he's routinely cooked the Timberwolves, averaging 10.5 assists per game in four meetings this year (regular season and playoffs).

Key stat: Doncic has cleared this mark in five straight games against the T-Wolves.

Quick pick

Lively over 16.5 points and rebounds (-117): Doncic is Batman and Kyrie Irving is Robin but Lively's impact on Dallas can't be understated.

The rookie center has been a revelation coming off the bench for the past six games.

He's averaging 10.8 points and 9.8 rebounds in that span while shooting 67.6% from the field. Lively cleared this total in five of those contests and has had at least 20 points/rebounds in four straight games.

Jason Kidd is only playing him 26.4 minutes per night in those six games but Dallas is a whopping +87 when he's been on the floor.

Compare that to starting center Daniel Gafford (-66) and we should see the minutes shifting even more in Lively's favour.

Picks as of 1:23 p.m. on 05/25/2024.

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