It's win or go home for the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, who square off in the play-in tournament on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: I expect the Warriors to do what they've done all year, which is succeed on the road. Even so, Steph Curry is worth fading on his assists prop — while Domantas Sabonis should be heavily involved.

Check out both Warriors vs. Kings picks for their play-in tournament matchup on April 16.

Warriors vs. Kings picks

Best Bet: Warriors moneyline (-134)

If the Warriors are going to reach the playoffs, they'll have to win back-to-back games away from home. Fortunately, they've found a way to thrive in road environments.

Golden State went 25-16 on the road, posting the fourth-best road net rating in the league (+4.2). The Warriors' road success was balanced, as they ranked in the top six in both offensive and defensive ratings.

Plus, in a battle between two NorCal franchises, it's difficult to believe this will feel like a true home game for the Kings anyway.

Not only is Golden State an accomplished road team, but it enters this matchup in far better form than Sacramento overall.

Consider these numbers over the teams' past 15 respective games:

• Warriors: 11-4, 57.9% eFG rate, +7.4 net rating
• Kings: 7-8, 52.8% eFG rate, +5.0 net rating

These teams split their season series, 2-2, but they haven't played since January. I'm more interested in their recent results, and with that in mind, the scales tip in Golden State's favour.

Key stat: Golden State went 19-2 as a road favourite this season, per Team Rankings.

Quick picks

Curry under 5.5 assists (-113): This is as much a vote of confidence in Curry's shooting as it is a fade of his assists prop.

Curry is averaging 26.4 PPG, which is nearly 10.0 points more than the next-highest scorer on the Warriors. He also takes roughly five shots per game more than anyone else.

As has been the case all season long, Golden State should look to live or die by Curry's jumpers.

The four-time champ is averaging a career-low 5.1 assists and has hit this under in three of four games against the Kings. I expect a big night from Curry, but more so as a scorer than anything else.

Sabonis over 38.5 points/rebounds/assists (-113): The Warriors are an A-plus matchup for facilitating big men, and that's one reason why I like this pick.

Golden State allows the most assists per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros. Sabonis, who ranks second among centres in assists per game (8.2), should be able to do plenty of damage.

Additionally, the Dubs allow the eighth-most points to centres.

And given that Sabonis is the league's rebounding champ (13.7 RPG), he should be active on the glass, too.

Over his past 20 games, Sabonis has averaged 39.3 PRA. He has also cleared this line in three of four games against Golden State this season.

Picks as of 3:40 p.m. on 04/15/2024.