The Champions League quarterfinals haven't disappointed so far.

The pregame narrative: Atletico Madrid and Barcelona hold one-goal aggregate leads over BVB Dortmund and PSG, respectively. Both of Wednesday's matchups — Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal and Manchester City vs. Real Madrid — are tied. I'm backing Erling Haaland and am taking the over at Camp Nou.

Check out these Champions League best bets for the quarterfinal matchups on April 16 and 17.

Champions League best bets

Best bet: Haaland over 1.5 shots on target (+100)

Real and City scored three goals apiece in the first leg of this quarterfinal but Haaland was held quiet, registering just 18 touches and one shot on target.

That said, I'm happy to back the Norweigan striker in a big spot.

Haaland has 19 shots on target in eight Champions League appearances this season. He's cleared this line in six of those games and has six goals to show for it, too.

This is also a line he's cleared more often than not in the Premier League (15 of 25 starts) while scoring a league-best 20 goals.

Madrid's defence is tops in La Liga but City's offence is on a different level. I'm expecting Haaland to get his looks in what should be a close game.

Key stat: Since joining Manchester City, Haaland has gone over this SOT total in 13 of 19 UCL games (68.4%).

Quick picks

Barcelona/PSG over 3.5 goals (+100): You don't often see a 3.5-goal total in soccer accompanied by these odds.

Barcelona just took down PSG, 3-2, at Parc des Princes, which partially explains these lofty scoring expectations. But according to FBref, there was just 3.1 expected goals in that game.

PSG has gone under this mark in six of its last 10 games across all competitions while Barcelona has gone under it in seven of its last 10 games.

So, why am I taking the over?

Barca lost the possession battle 59-41 in the first leg and I expect PSG to be pushing for goals straight from kick-off. The absence of Gavi in the midfield creates a huge gap for the home side that should be exposed immediately.

Kylian Mbappe and Co. had 40 touches in Barcelona's penalty area last game but couldn't capitalize as often as they would have liked.

The Parisians should be able to dictate the pace of play in this one and if they can score early, this has all the makings of another shootout.

Picks made at 11:53 a.m. ET 04/16/2024.