It's do-or-die when the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors in the 9/10 play-in game tonight.

The pregame narrative: Each of the last three meetings between these teams has been decided by a point. I'm teasing up the Kings as home underdogs and am also backing Steph Curry and De'Aaron Fox to fill the basket.

Check out the full Warriors vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for April 16.

Warriors vs. Kings SGP picks

Parlay: Kings +7.5 + Fox over 28.5 points + Curry over 27.5 points (+275)

Kings +7.5 (-235): The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10 games while the Kings are just 4-6 but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Golden State beat up on some bottom-feeders (Jazz twice, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Spurs) while Sacramento was in tough against the league's best (Thunder, Celtics, Knicks, Pelicans, Suns).

In that 10-game span, the Warriors rank seventh in net rating (+8.1) while the Kings rank eighth (+6.9).

These are two evenly matched teams and that's been clear whenever they share the court. Sacramento took the last two meetings 134-133 and 124-123 and Golden State won the two before that 102-101 and 122-114.

This is a number the Kings have covered in 11 of 15 games against the Warriors dating back to the start of last season (playoffs included).

Other parlay picks

Fox over 28.5 points (-115): Fox has cleared this total in all three games versus the Warriors this year and will be asked to carry a heavy load tonight.

Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk are sidelined and that shooting guard tandem combined to average 25.6 points per game on 21.2 shot attempts.

Keon Ellis, a second-year guard out of Alabama, will get a good amount of run. He's averaged 15.25 points in his last four games but it's hard to imagine the Kings putting much trust in the sophomore with their season on the line.

Fox is a proven bucket-getter who has cleared this mark against some of the league's best defences in April:

• 33 points vs. Pelicans (sixth-best def. rating) on April 11
• 33 points vs. Thunder (fourth-best def. rating) on April 9
• 40 points vs. Celtics (second-best def. rating) on April 5
• 29 points vs. Knicks (ninth-best def. rating) on April 4

Expect him to show out.

Curry over 26.5 points (-177): Curry has straight-up tormented Kings fans the past few years.

He cleared this line in all seven playoff games versus Sacramento last season, averaging 33.7 points on 48.8/37.8/82.9 shooting splits.

He also went over this mark in three of four games agianst the Kings this year.

Sacramento typically defends point guards well — it has allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to that position this season, per FantasyPros — but that type of sample is too large to ignore.

Picks as of 10:27 a.m. on 04/16/2024.