A struggling Chris Bassitt and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles tonight at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: The Orioles have one of the best offences in the league, and I like their chances of clearing their team total in this matchup. As for player props, I've got plus-money plays on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles on Aug. 6.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Go to full Blue Jays/Orioles MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Orioles over 4.5 runs (-105)
Since joining the Blue Jays, Bassitt hasn't solved the Orioles. Frankly, he hasn't really been close.
Bassitt started twice against the Orioles last year and once again last week. In those outings, he's allowed 17 runs on 27 hits in just 13.0 innings — taking the loss all three times.
To put it another way, Baltimore's current lineup is batting .400 with a .643 SLG against Bassitt in 70 at-bats. Even newly-acquired Eloy Jimenez, who's having an awful season, owns an excellent head-to-head stat line against Bassitt (5-for-11, two walks).
If the Orioles were entering on a cold streak, or if Bassitt was riding a hot streak, I might hesitate to back this team prop. But neither of those things is true.
Baltimore is fifth in wRC+ (132) over the past two weeks, posting a .280/.361/.455 slash line in that time.
As for Bassitt, July was a nightmare.
Key stat: All five of Bassitt's opponents in July went over 4.5 runs.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+120): It's a broken record at this point, but not one I'm looking to fix. Vlad Jr. has been cashing far too many bases props to see a price like this.
During his active 17-game hit streak, Guerrero has hit this over 14 times. He has a .500/.560/1.078 slash line and 19 extra-base hits in that span.
In my view, those numbers alone are enough to make this price look like a bargain. Vladdy's success against Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is just a bonus.
Guerrero is 5-for-14 with a double and a home run against Rodriguez, and he's cashed this bet in Gray-Rod's past three starts against Toronto.
Henderson over 0.5 runs (+105): I know Henderson has shifted from the leadoff spot to No. 3 in the Orioles' lineup, but I'm still bullish on his chances to score tonight.
Since moving to the third spot in the lineup, Henderson is batting 13-for-32 (.406) with 12 runs scored. He's cashed this prop in six of those eight games.
Baltimore's offence is strong enough that anyone has a chance to score as long as they find a way on base. Henderson, who is 4-for-7 with two homers against Bassitt, should be able to do that.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 08/06/24.
