Teoscar Hernandez was one of the heroes in last night's win for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I'm backing him on the prop market for Tuesday's matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The pregame narrative: Hernandez looks like a great bet to score tonight — especially if he retains an elevated role in the lineup. On the Phillies' side, starter Cristopher Sanchez is worth fading on his outs prop.
Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers props for Aug. 6.
Phillies vs. Dodgers props
Go to full Phillies/Dodgers betting markets.
Best Bet: Hernandez over 0.5 runs (+132)
Hernandez has spent most of the year in the heart of the Dodgers' lineup, but the team has recently experimented with moving him up. That makes his runs prop look even more enticing.
The Home Run Derby champ has batted in the No. 2 spot in 12 of L.A.'s past 18 games — including each of the past three.
He also has scored in four straight games and has scored a run in each of those.
If Hernandez is back in the No. 2 spot tonight — presumably between Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — he should have a great chance to score. No one on the Dodgers crushes lefties quite like him.
Among 156 qualified hitters, Hernandez ranks fifth in MLB in slugging percentage against lefties (.615) and 15th in wRC+ (166).
Hernandez is 1-for-3 against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez, which doesn't tell us much. But Sanchez has been very hittable lately.
In five July starts, Sanchez allowed 20 runs in 27.1 innings (6.59 ERA) and a .313 opponent batting average.
If the Dodgers can get to Sanchez, Hernandez should definitely play a role in that.
Key stat: Hernandez has scored in 11 of his past 21 games, posting a .928 OPS in that span.
Quick pick
Sanchez under 17.5 outs (-129): Sanchez snuck over this line when he faced the Dodgers last month, but he's still a worthy fade candidate in this matchup.
The Dodgers have a 122 wRC+ against lefties this season, which is the best in MLB. At home, they rank second in home runs (87) and wRC+ (123).
So although Sanchez recently tossed 6.0 innings of two-run ball against the Dodgers in Philadelphia, I expect a different result in L.A. Especially because the Phillies have used one reliever in back-to-back games.
Sanchez has averaged 17.2 outs per start this season. Facing an elite offence like the Dodgers, I think fading him is the right call.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 08/06/2024.
