For the very last time this season, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Baltimore already has the season series locked up, but Toronto can win this three-game set at home tonight with ex-Oriole Kevin Gausman on the mound. The O's send struggling starter Dean Kremer to the mound and my favourite bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Orioles on Aug. 8.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Go to full Blue Jays/Orioles MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-103)
Guerrero's hit streak is still rolling (19 games and counting) and it's totally defensible to be tailing his bases prop on a nightly basis right now. But Vladdy also has a keen eye at the plate, and I'm worried that a walk or two could put a bases prop bet in jeopardy.
So at a slightly better price, I'll bet on Vlad Jr. to score a run.
From the No. 3 spot in the Jays' lineup, Guerrero isn't in the ideal place to score. But he's reaching base at a sky-high clip, which is enough justification for me to back him on this market at near-even money.
During his 19-game hitting streak, Guerrero has a .566 on-base percentage. He has multiple bases and/or has reached base multiple times in 18 of those games.
If Vladdy doesn't homer, this bet will rely on someone else driving him home. That might seem like a risky move given how Toronto's offence has underperformed this year, but things have been a bit better lately.
Since the all-star break, the Blue Jays rank 13th in team OPS (.736). Not great, but not bad.
With how well Guerrero has performed recently — and his head-to-head success against Kremer — I think he'll put himself in position for someone to bring him around.
Key stat: Guerrero is 8-for-25 (.320) with four home runs, a double and two walks against Kremer.
Quick pick
Over 4.5 runs - first five innings (-121): Neither Gausman nor Kremer is pitching well right now, and this mid-game over looks very attainable.
Here's how both starters have fared over their past seven starts, respectively:
- Kremer: 37 hits in 34.0 innings, 5.29 ERA, .754 opponent OPS
- Gausman: 41 hits in 43.2 innings, 5.15 ERA, .741 opponent OPS
The F5 over is 63-41-11 in Baltimore's games this season and 61-49-4 in Toronto's games. Last night, they cashed this bet by the end of the second inning.
There are seven Orioles with a dozen or more plate appearances against the Toronto right-hander. That type of experience should work in Baltimore's favour against Gausman, whose 4.56 ERA is 10th-highest among 66 qualified pitchers.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 08/08/24.
