Two Cincinnati Reds highlight today's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz are having special seasons and I'm backing each of them to do damage agianst the lowly Miami Marlins. I also like Alec Bohm to stay hot.
Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 8.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Hunter over 18.5 outs (+105)
Taking the over on an 18.5 out total is always risky but Greene has been borderline unhittable lately.
That's not an exaggeration. Check out the righty's stats since the start of July (five starts):
- 33.0 IP
- 0.27 ERA
- .094 opponent BA
- 40-to-9 K/BB ratio
- 3-2 against this line
Greene has allowed just one earned run in that span and landed on exactly 6.0 IP — or 18.0 outs — in the two starts where he didn't clear this total.
Now, he gets to go up against the Marlins, who are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
Miami ranks 29th in runs per game (3.94), 29th in slugging percentage (.364), 28th in wRC+ (83), and 20th in batting average (.238).
One thing which could work against Greene is his command issues.
He has an 85th percentile K rate (28.1) and 97th percentile xBA (.187) but also a 30th percentile walk rate (9.4%), per Baseball Savant.
Free passes drive up pitch count and make it harder to work into ball games. That said, Greene only has two walks in his last two starts and Miami ranks dead last in walks per game (2.34) and chase rate (33.1).
Key stat: Greene has cleared this mark in three of his last four road starts.
Quick picks
Elle De La Cruz over 0.5 runs (-118): Starting opposite Greene is Kyle Tyler, a third-year righty with a 5.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.
Tyler has been getting rocked lately, allowing 12 earned runs in 16.2 IP since the start of July.
Cruz is inconsistent but is capable of having huge games.
In his last four games, he went: 0-for-4, 2-for-5 (two doubles, two runs), 4-for-5 (two doubles, two home runs, three runs), and 0-for-3.
I think Tyler is the kind of arm the 22-year-old can get after.
Cruz is hitting .292/.368/.573 against righties this year.
Bohm over 1.5 bases (-104): Bohm has cleared this line six times during his nine-game hitting streak and should stay hot tonight.
The Phillies' third baseman has been solid against lefties all season (.305/.361/.482) and is straight-up terrorizing them post all-star break.
Bohm is 6-for-14 with two doubles and a home run vs. LHP since then.
His Phillies go up against a washed-up Jordan Montgomery (6.37 ERA) who has a second-percentile xBA (.295) and fourth-percentile K rate (14.6).
Picks made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/08/2024.
