The Toronto Blue Jays have a shot at a three-game sweep today against the San Diego Padres.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has outscored San Diego, 10-3, so far in this series and has now won six of seven games overall. I'm looking for a bit more offence in the series finale and am backing the over as my best bet.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Padres for April 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. Padres

Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-115)

Both games of this series have hit the under, but I'm not giving up hope on the run-scoring potential that exists here.

Chris Bassitt, who starts for the Blue Jays, has been suspect when pitching on the road. These are his home/road splits since 2022:

• Home: 2.82 ERA, 24.0 K%, .596 opponent OPS
• Road: 4.44 ERA, 20.7 K%, .785 opponent OPS

The last time he pitched at Petco Park, which was two summers ago, Bassitt coughed up seven runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings.

All in all, Bassitt has strong numbers against the Padres' current lineup, albeit in a limited sample: .216 BA, .314 SLG and a 31.5% K rate in 54 plate appearances. But I'm not willing to trust him on the road.

As for Padres starter Joe Musgrove, it's difficult to trust him anywhere right now. The San Diego native has allowed 17 runs in 24.1 innings (6.29 ERA), and it doesn't look like a fluke.

San Diego (109) and Toronto (107) rank eighth and 10th, respectively, in wRC+ so far. Combining that with some potentially shaky pitching, this over should be very much in play.

Key stat: At this number, the over is 1-0-1 in Bassitt's road starts this year — and 15-12-5 since the start of the '22 season.

Quick pick

Varsho 1+ hits (-132): Even if Varsho wasn't on a hot streak, I still think this line would be worth a look. But it's particularly compelling based on his recent form.

These days, the talented outfielder is matching his great plays in the field with some quality at-bats. He's 11-for-33 (.333) with two doubles and five homers since April 9.

In that span, he has at least one hit in seven of nine starts. And his hard-hit rate (58.0%) would be among the top 12 players in the majors if extrapolated over the full season.

Against Musgrove, Varsho is 4-for-13 with two doubles and a HR.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 04/21/24.