The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox wrap up a four-game set tonight at Fenway Park.
The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis looks to keep the good times rolling tonight after four consecutive strong starts. I'm taking the over on his strikeouts prop and looking for the Jays to lead at the halfway mark.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 29.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
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Best Bet: Blue Jays to lead after five innings (+138)
This is a great price to back one starter moving in the right direction while fading a starter that's trending way down.
Francis seems to have figured some things out this month, posting a 1.32 ERA and a .100 opponent BA in 27.1 innings. He's slid back into Toronto's rotation over the past four turns and has certainly earned that promotion.
I don't want to make too much of a sub-30-inning sample, but it doesn't look fluky. His hard-hit rate is only 33% — the league average is 38.9% — and his xBA allowed is .141, per Baseball Savant.
While Francis is entering the stretch run on a high note, Boston's Kutter Crawford has been utterly flat since the all-star break.
Crawford has an 8.13 ERA and a .917 opponent OPS in his past seven outings, allowing 31 runs in just 34.1 innings.
Boston's offence has bailed Crawford out more than he deserves, so the team's F5 record in those games is 3-4-0. But I don't think a similar bailout is coming against Francis.
Expect Francis to keep the pedal on the floor against a Red Sox squad that is 22nd in on-base percentage over the past two weeks (.301).
Key stat: Toronto is 6-0-0 on the F5 moneyline in Francis' past six starts.
Quick pick
Francis over 5.5 Ks (-105): If you're willing to ride the wave with Francis, this bet makes a ton of sense.
The right-hander has seven or more Ks in all four starts this month, and he's coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Los Angeles Angels.
L.A. has the 11th-highest K rate in the majors, so you could say they're a slightly favourable matchup. But Boston is even more enticing.
The Red Sox's 25.2% K rate is the third-highest in baseball. Eight of the last 10 starters to face Boston finished over 5.5 Ks.
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. on 08/29/24.
