The final major of the 2024 tennis season starts Monday.
The Latest: Jannik Sinner is the world's No. 1 ranked player and he's my best bet to win the US Open due to his successful history on hard courts. On the women's side, I'm taking Iga Swiatek to win despite her coming up short in the last few tournaments.
Check out my top US Open picks for the 2024 tennis tournament.
US Open picks
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Best bet to win: Jannik Sinner (+350)
There are three big names atop the odds board: Carlos Alcaraz (+190), Novak Djokovic (+210), and Sinner (+350).
I'm not backing the Italian purely on the fact that he has the widest odds. I also like his stats on outdoor hard surfaces this year and throughout his career.
He's 23-2 on hard courts in 2024 which is his best of any surface. Sinner is 48-5 overall and is currently the No. 1 ranked player in the world entering the competition.
So why is he not the favourite? Firstly, he's 0-2 against Alcaraz this year, but both matches were contested on clay. Sinner won the previous two meetings on hard courts.
He also got a win on the outdoor hard courts against Djokovic this year and is coming off a tournament win at the Cincinnati Open which is played on the same surface.
I would likely be on Sinner if all three guys had the same odds but with the added value, I see it as a no-brainer to back the Italian.
Top value play
Daniil Medvedev (+1,600): Medvedev is having a strong season. He's 35-13 in 2024 and 18-6 on hard courts. He has been struggling recently but can beat anyone in the world if he can find his top form.
The Russian is 11-9 in 2024 against top-10 opponents. He has wins over Sinner and Alexander Zvevev, two of the four athletes with shorter odds than Medvedev.
He's coming into the US Open losing out in the first round of back-to-back tournaments but his results at last year's tournament restore my confidence.
Medvedev beat Alcaraz in straight sets en route to the final where he ultimately lost to the 2023 champ, Djokovic.
Top sleeper pick
Alex De Minaur (+9,000): He hasn't seen action since Wimbledon but I believe in the talent De Minaur showed earlier in the season.
The Australian is 36-12 this year with a 15-5 record on hard courts. He has wins over Djokovic, Zverev, Rublev, Ruud and Tsitsipas on the surface. All those mentioned athletes are ranked inside the top 11 of the US Open.
Luckily for De Minaur, he's been placed in Section 4 and wouldn't see any of these competitors until at least the quarterfinals.
That would give him plenty of time to build back from his hip injury and be in top form heading into the tougher matchups.
Top US Open picks: Women's tournament
Best bet to win: Iga Swiatek (+350)
Swiatek is usually the favourite heading into most tournaments but that's not the case at the US Open.
The favourite, Aryna Sabalenka (+240), beat the Pole in straight sets on August 18 in the Cincinnati Open, justifying the odds. I'm happy looking past recency bias, however, and taking the value on the world's No. 1 ranked player.
In 2024, Swiatek is 55-7 with a 25-4 record on hard courts. She is 8-4 head-to-head in her career against Sabalenka and has won 19-of-29 total sets played between the two.
Switaek's won four WTA 1000 events this season and one Grand Slam tournament (French Open).
Last year's winner Coco Gauff doesn't compare to Swiatek or Sabalenka when it comes to recent success. Gauff's lost two of her last three matches and three of her last six. All of which were played on a hard court.
With those results, I can't get behind her repeating at 8-to-1 odds and much prefer the value on Swiatek.
Top value play
Elena Rybakina (+1,000)
Rybakina is a great player who's fallen short of winning any WTA 1000 events or majors this season. But her stats rival any of the world's top players.
She's 40-9 in 2024 with a 22-5 record on hard courts. She has a win and a loss over both Swiatek and Sabalenka this year, all on this playing surface.
Therefore, I know he has the skills to beat any competitor but the consistency is what has been lacking.
Rybakina has won just one Grand Slam tournament in her career (2022 Wimbledon) but has an overall record of 47-18 (72%) in majors. She knows how to win but can't seem to get it done in big games but at 10-to-1, I'll back her talent every time.
Top sleeper pick
Emma Navarro (+5,000)
Navarro does her best work on hard courts. In 2024, she's 26-10.
At 23 years old, a bet here is relying more on potential than results but that's what bettors need to look for when digging for sleepers.
If Navarro was going to break out and win her first career major, I'd like to believe it'd be at the US Open on her favourite surface. For context, she's played more games this season on hard courts (36) than clay and grass combined (31).
She reached at least the third round in every major this season after failing to get past the second round in any Grand Slam tournament prior to 2024.
The American is having a breakout season on tour and there wouldn't be a better cap it off than with a US Open win on home soil.
US Open picks made at 10:26 am on 08/24/24
