I'm backing three road teams in these EPL Matchday 3 picks
The pregame narrative: Brighton is off to a hot start under a new manager and I like them to score against Arsenal. Elsewhere, back Tottenham and Aston Villa to pick up the full three points against Newcastle and Leicester City.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 3 picks.
EPL Matchday 3 picks
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Best Bet: Brighton to score (-150)
I understand a -150 wager isn't the most palatable but I think that's a price worth paying.
Brighton is off to an electric start this season. They're 2-0-0 with wins over Manchester United (2-1) and Everton (3-0). Outside of league play, the Seagulls beat Villareal 4-0 in a friendly and Crawley Town 4-0 in an EFL Cup match.
It's hard not to be impressed with what 31-year-old manager Fabian Hürzeler is doing.
That's right, Hürzeler is the youngest permanent head coach in Premier League history. Before his time with Brighton, he coached FC St. Pauli and had them promoted to the Bundesliga.
Cracking Mikel Arteta's side at the Emirates will be challenging — the Gunners conceded a league-low 29 goals last season — but I think Hürzeler has the tools for the job.
Brighton's 3.5 non-penalty xG is the fifth-most in the EPL through two games, per FBRef.
Key stat: Brighton has scored in all seven games since Hürzeler was appointed while averaging 3.28 goals per game.
Quick pick
Tottenham to win (+155): Let's balance out the last wager with a nice plus-money pick. Tottenham's offence was flashing on Matchday 2 when it dismantled Everton, 4-0, at home.
Now, the Blues are a borderline relegation side and Newcastle will be a tougher out at St. James' Park, but I still like the Spurs here.
Tottenham had a road win in the bag on Matchday 1 at Leicester but let it slip away in the second half. In that match, we saw the team's ability to relentlessly press in the first 45 minutes, outshooting its opponent 10-to-1 (0.54 xG to 0.01).
I expect Ange Postecoglou to employ similar tactics against Newcastle, which hasn't looked that good so far.
The Magpies are 1-1-0 with a draw to Bournemouth (1-1) and a win over Southampton (1-0). They'll also be playing an EFL Cup match at the time of writing on Wednesday, which means the Spurs should be just a little fresher.
Aston Villa to win (-124): Building off that last point, I think Aston Villa should beat Leicester at King Power Stadium.
The Foxes might have escaped with a draw against Tottenham but weren't the better side for most of the game. The following week they lost, 2-1, away at Fulham.
Villa just took a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal but had several grade-A chances squandered while generating 1.2 xG.
Leicester is nowhere near Arsenal's level defensively and is just two seasons removed from being relegated. I think Unai Emery's guys will make a statement on Saturday.
Picks made at 12:58 p.m. on 08/28/24.
