I'm all over the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup for tonight's MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Bryce Harper is in a familiar matchup and should be able to do damage. On the Braves' side, I'm fading the bases props for a pair of hitters. Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. has great value to score against the Houston Astros.
Check out how I'm backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+148)
Harper gets a great price tonight to stay hot at the plate while facing a pitcher he's already tagged.
What's not to like?
It's largely been a second-half swoon for Harper, whose .983 OPS at the break has fallen nearly 100 points since. But he's back to swinging a hot stick, cashing his bases prop in five of the past six games.
Tonight, Harper faces longtime foe Charlie Morton, and the head-to-head history favours the two-time MVP.
Harper is 11-for-27 (.407) with a home run, a triple and a double off Morton. He's also drawn eight walks, which doesn't help the bases prop but could indicate that he sees the ball well out of Morton's hand.
Speaking of Morton, I think he's someone to fade on the road on Thursday. Here's how his past two starts in Philadelphia went:
- Sept. 11, 2023: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB
- Sept. 9, 2022: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB
Harper still ranks 14th in MLB in slugging percentage (.520) and 12th in OPS (.887). In a great matchup, I'm happy to ride with him at a price like this.
Key stat: Harper has gone over 1.5 bases in 49 of 117 games (41.9%). The implied probability of this prop bet is 40.3%.
Quick picks
Witt over 0.5 runs (+100): It's too late for Witt to win MVP, but he's not slowing down in the slightest.
Since July began, Witt has been on an absurd offensive run. In his past 48 games, he has 49 runs and a 1.230 OPS. He has cashed his runs prop in 34 of those 48 games, which makes this even-money price look like a steal.
Witt hits for power and can get into scoring position with his fleet feet, too. He has an extra-base hit in five straight games and in 14 of his past 20.
Parlay: Michael Harris II, Orlando Arcia both under 1.5 bases (-129): A minus-odds combo wager might seem like nasty work, but I think the justification is there to fade these guys against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez.
Harris, who is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts against Sanchez, has a .595 OPS and a 26.5% K rate over his past 25 games. He's only cashed this bet five times in that span.
Arcia, who is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts against Sanchez, has a .158/.258/.281 slash line since Aug. 12. He's gone under 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 16 games.
Though Arcia would seem to have a platoon advantage as a righty hitter against the left-handed Sanchez, that isn't the case. Arcia has a measly .255 SLG against lefties this year over 110 at-bats.
Picks made at 2:22 p.m. ET on 08/29/2024.
