The Toronto Blue Jays vie for a series sweep of the New York Yankees in an afternoon game on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman looks to work out some early-season struggles while ex-Jay Marcus Stroman makes his second career start as a visitor at Rogers Centre. I'm backing the under on the first-five-inning line, but I also like a player on each side to score.

Check out these Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees for April 17.

Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees

Best Bet: Under 4.5 runs - first five innings (-124)

Gausman is off to a nightmarish start in April. He's allowed 12 runs on 14 hits in two abbreviated starts — and one of those game was against the Yankees.

Last year's AL strikeout leader saw some notable velocity dips in his start at Yankee Stadium, which was part of the problem. His fastball was down 3.3 mph, compared to Baseball Savant's tracking from 2023, while his splitter was down 4 mph.

Fortunately, Gausman regained his velocity last time out. And with that problem hopefully behind him, the right-hander can focus on dominating the Yankees the way he did last season.

In '23, Gausman held the Yankees to three runs (two earned) over four starts. He struck out 36 batters over 27 innings, minimizing their lineup to a .430 OPS.

A bounce-back performance wouldn't be surprising, and sure would help this F5 under.

As for Stroman, he tossed six shutout innings against the Jays earlier this month in the Bronx. All three of his starts have hit this F5 under.

The F5 under is 12-6 for New York so far, according to ATS.io. For Toronto, the F5 under is 10-8. Together, these teams have gone under this number in three of five matchups on the season.

Both pitchers have shown they're capable of quieting bats in this matchup, and hopefully that proves true again.

Key stat: Three of Gausman's four starts against the Yankees last year finished below 4.5 F5 runs.

Quick picks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (+102): I'm not expecting much early offence, but I do like this plus-money price on Guerrero to score.

There are early signs that Guerrero is taking a more patient approach, as his chase rate (23.8%) is currently a career-low. He already has four walks in this series to go with a pair of hits last night.

The first baseman has scored in six of his past 10 games and posted an .817 OPS in that span.

Toronto's hottest hitter, Justin Turner, is two spots behind Vladdy and should have a chance or two to drive him in. Turner and Bo Bichette are 5-for-17 (.294) with three doubles against Stroman.

Juan Soto over 0.5 runs (-117): Soto's tenure in pinstripes could be short, but so far it's been awfully sweet.

The star outfielder has slashed .324/.447/.500 from the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He has reached base in 10 straight games, scoring eight times in that span.

Soto's elite walk rate is a key part of that, which is why I prefer betting his run prop as opposed to bases. The 25-year-old has reached safely in 12 of 18 plate appearances against Gausman (four hits, eight walks).

Due up after Soto is Aaron Judge, who's 10-for-32 (.313) with six extra-base hits against Gausman. New York's superstar duo could do some damage tonight.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. on 04/17/24.