Bucks vs. Pacers SGP picks Game 3: Take the over but fade Tyrese Haliburton
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Tyrese Haliburton's scoring volume has gone way down since his midseason injury. Photo by Kyle Terada/AP.
Jordan Horrobin
@JordanHorrobin
April 25, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks have multiple stars in question for Game 3 as they hit the road to face the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: No matter what the statuses are for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, I think these teams are capable of hitting the over. This +325 ticket also features prop bets for Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton.

Check out the full Bucks vs. Pacers SGP picks for Game 3 of their first-round matchup on April 26.

Bucks vs. Pacers SGP picks

Parlay: Over 222.5 points + Nembhard over 2.5 assists + Haliburton under 20.5 points (+325)

Over 222.5 points (-108): Indiana forgot how to shoot for several stretches during a miserable Game 1, causing the game to go under its projected total. But I view that game as a blip on the radar.

The Pacers came back strong in Game 2 and led the charge in a matchup that finished with 233 total points. But for some reason, the projected total for Game 3 is one point lower than its predecessor.

In the regular season, Indiana and Milwaukee averaged 254 total points over five games. They've now finished in the 230s or higher in six of seven meetings.

The over is 25-16 when Indiana plays at home this season, and this is the lowest over/under the Pacers have had at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Other parlay picks

Nembhard over 2.5 assists (-200): Haliburton is the Pacers' alpha in terms of assists, but Nembhard is worth a look at this modest number.

He's hit the over in both playoff games and averaged 3.8 assists over his final 15 games of the regular season.

The second-year guard has spent most of the season in the starting lineup, which has helped him see enough opportunities to hit this over at a consistent rate.

As a starter, Nembhard has gone over 2.5 assists in 34 of 47 games.

Haliburton under 20.5 points (-315): It's not quite worthy of a 30-for-30 documentary, but Haliburton's fall-off this season should be studied.

Look at his numbers before and after sustaining a hamstring injury this season:

  • Pre-injury (32 games): 24.2 PPG, 17.3 FG attempts, 49.6% FG rate
  • Post-injury (37 games): 16.6 PPG, 13.4 FG attempts, 45.5% FG rate

In two playoff matchups so far against the Bucks, Haliburton hasn't come even close to this line. He's finished with just 21 total points on 8-of-17 shooting.

Pascal Siakam is balling and Haliburton seems content to take a back seat. With that in mind, I'm fine fading him at this teased-up total despite also banking on the game to hit the over.

Picks as of 3:00 p.m. on 04/25/2024.

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