The Toronto Maple Leafs, who are locked into the No. 3 playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, play what is potentially a Round 1 preview against the Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Given that Toronto cannot move up or down in the standings, tonight's focus is on Auston Matthews' pursuit of 70 goals more than anything else. Even in a subpar matchup, I'm backing him to score as my best bet.

Check out the best Maple Leafs picks and odds vs. the Panthers for April 16.

Maple Leafs picks and props vs. Panthers

Best Bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (-125)

The Panthers allow the fewest goals per 60 in the NHL (2.39), per Natural Stat Trick. So in that way, they are a terrible matchup for Matthews.

But the soon-to-be Rocket Richard Trophy winner has been great in this matchup, and he's surely hungry to claim a piece of history tonight.

Matthews, who has eight goals in his past 10 regular season games against Florida, is one goal shy of the 70-goal milestone. Nobody has hit that number since Alexander Mogilny in 1993.

Over the past weeks, Matthews has put on a full-court press. He has 13 goals over his previous 14 games. That includes an eight-game active goal streak.

If nothing else, Matthews should get plenty of chances to score tonight. The over/under on his shots total (4.5) is shaded heavily toward the over (-141).

Matthews only fired two shots on goal when he faced the Panthers on April 1, but both shots found the back of the net.

Leafs fans can question whether Matthews should even be on the ice in a game that is meaningless for the team. But as long as he's out there, I like his chances to score.

Key stat: Matthews leads the NHL in individual scoring chances per 60 (15.27).

Quick pick

Maple Leafs +1 (-120): Florida has a chance to win the Atlantic Division tonight, but that doesn't mean Toronto will simply roll over.

The Leafs have played the Panthers tough for years, and tonight serves as an opportunity to send a message before they potentially meet again this weekend.

Toronto is 7-5-3 against Florida since 2021-22, including last spring's playoff series. Six of those eight losses came by one goal, meaning the Leafs have pushed or cashed on this line in 13 of their past 15 head-to-head matchups.

That includes a 6-4 win for the Leafs a couple of weeks ago.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. on 04/16/24.