Corbin Burnes, Juan Soto and Logan O'Hoppe are today's targets on the MLB prop market.
The pregame narrative: I don't fade Burnes often, but I really like the under on his strikeouts prop against the Houston Astros. Later on, look for Soto to do damage in a familiar matchup and for O'Hoppe to find a way to get a hit.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Saturday, June 22.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Burnes under 6.5 Ks (-137)
Burnes is a legitimate AL Cy Young contender (+250), but fading his strikeouts prop at this number has been a good bet all season.
In 15 starts, Burnes has hit this under 12 times.
The first-year Oriole has posted just an 8.6 K/9 this season, which is his lowest strikeouts average since he was a rookie in 2018. But he hasn't needed to pile up punchouts in order to succeed.
Burnes has the lowest ERA in the AL (2.14) while holding opponents to a .569 OPS. His mid-90s cutter is the headline offering, but he does well to keep hitters guessing with ample curveballs and changeups — both of which have garnered sub-.200 xBA, per Baseball Savant.
The Astros, who face Burnes today, are talented enough to give the right-hander a hard time. Their 111 wRC+ ranks sixth in MLB.
But even if they don't do a ton of damage, I don't expect them to strike out in bunches.
Houston has the lowest K rate in the majors (18.2%), the highest zone contact rate (86.1%) and the third-lowest whiff rate (22.7%).
Key stat: Burnes has averaged 5.9 Ks per outing this season.
Quick picks
Parlay: Soto 1+ hits, 1+ runs (+108): I'm intrigued by the over on Soto's bases prop (+140), but there's a bit too much of a risk that a walk or two ruins his chances to cash. So instead, I'm riding with this plus-money combo wager.
Soto has tallied a hit and a run in 37 of 75 games (49.3%), which is a hair better than the implied probability of this bet (48.1%). And against Morton, I think the chances are even greater than that.
Having spent time in the NL East, Soto has faced Morton a handful of times. In that head-to-head matchup, Soto is 7-for-11 with three home runs.
O'Hoppe over 0.5 hits (-132): He's not the biggest name in the all-L.A. matchup, but O'Hoppe stands out to me as having the best value in tonight's game.
The 24-year-old catcher is batting .271 on the season and has collected a hit in 41 of 64 games (64.1%).
He's doing his best work right now, collecting a hit in 10 of his past 13 — with a .370 BA in that span.
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow is never easy on opposing hitters, but one knock doesn't feel like a big ask at this price.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 06/22/2024.
