Matt Chapman has been on a tear. But today, I'm fading the slugger in my MLB props.
The pregame narrative: Chapman faces James Paxton today which is a matchup he's struggled with in his career. I'm finding value in fading the third baseman as my best bet today. Elsewhere, I'm backing Joe Ryan's strikeout prop against the Seattle Mariners
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Best bet: Chapman under 0.5 runs (-129)
There's no question Chapman has been hot lately. San Fransisco's third baseman has a hit in nine of his last 11 games. That includes scoring 11 runs.
But I'm valuing the pitching success in this matchup. Paxton has held his counterpart to very limited production when the two have met in their careers.
Chapman has just two hits and four walks in 24 plate appearances.
Either Michael Conforto or Jorge Soler usually hit behind Chapman in the order so it's a positive sign that neither has had success in this matchup.
Conforto is 3-for-13 (.231 BA) and Soler is 1-for-7 (.143 BA) with four strikeouts.
Paxton has been playing his best ball of the season right now too. In his last three starts, he's pitched 18 innings, allowing only two runs on seven hits.
Scoring could be a hard task for the San Fransisco Giants tonight and even though the team has scored 12 runs in this series so far, expect a more Dodgers-like performance from L.A. tonight, led by the southpaw on the mound.
Key stat: In Paxtons first start against the Giants this year, Chapman went 1-for-3 with no runs scored.
Quick pick
Ryan over 7.5 Ks (+104): Not many pitchers can consistently pound the strike zone like Ryan. The righty has a zone % of 53.7, according to Baseball Savant. That's well above the league average (48.6%).
It has led to 100 total strikeouts on the year for Ryan with only 15 walks allowed. That's a dangerous proposition for this Seattle Mariners squad.
Seattle leads the MLB in strikeouts per game (10.19) and that number has climbed to 13.67 over the last three — more than any other team during that span.
In his one meeting with Seattle last year, Ryan was not good. He pitched 3.2 innings and gave up four runs. The bright side is he struck out seven batters in his short outing.
The 28-year-old looks a lot more polished this summer and I'm expecting him to outshine his performance from last season.
Picks made at 9:34 a.m. ET on 06/30/2024.
