Denis Shapovalov's Wimbledon quest begins with a match against Nicolas Jarry.
The pregame narrative: Shapovalov isn't having a strong campaign, which makes it difficult to pick him to win. Jarry has a skill bettors can rely on and is a nice plus-money choice to earn a win in the first round of the tournament.
Check out our Jarry vs. Shapovalov odds and best bet for their Wimbledon match on July 1.
Jarry vs. Shapovalov Wimbledon odds
Best Bet: Jarry to win (+125)
There are several reasons why Shapovalov is worth a fade in this spot.
Firstly, he's listed as the favourite in this match. Nothing the Canadian has done this year (or last year, for that matter) has warranted that status.
Shapovalov owns a brutal 12-16 record in 2024 and is a pedestrian 25-29 since the start of 2023.
His run to the semifinals at Wimbledon 2021 feels like forever ago at this point. He hasn't had any success on grass since, going 6-9 on the surface.
He did advance to the fourth round at Wimbledon 2023 but I'm doubtful about his prospects of a long run considering his first-round matchup.
Shapovalov's opponent, Jarry, has a skill set that should play well on this surface.
The Chilean is a heavy server, ranking 12th among all players in serve rating (284.6), according to ATPTour.com.
Jarry is a little inexperienced on this surface, having played only seven matches on it over the last five years, but he does own a 4-3 record during this stretch.
The sporadic Shapovalov is an unreliable wager to win in most circumstances. Betting on him to beat a player who possesses an elite serve on a surface that favours the trait isn't something I'm going to do.
Back the better server at plus-money odds.
Key stat: Jarry went 2-1 at Wimbledon last year, losing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the third round. The Spaniard battled seven competitors at last year's tournament and Jarry was just one of three who stole a set off of Alcaraz.
Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET on 06/29/2024.
