The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks square off in the desert tonight.
The pregame narrative: Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia opposite a struggling Zac Gallen. I'm fading Gallen's strikeout total and am backing Bryce Harper to record multiple bases.
Check out my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props for Aug. 10.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props
Go to full Phillies/Diamondbacks betting markets.
Best Bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+120)
Harper has his swagger back.
The two-time MVP was lost coming out of the all-star break, going just 6-for-56 (.107 BA) in his first 13 games following the festivities.
But you can't keep a player like that down for long.
Harper is batting .367 over his last seven games with three doubles and two home runs. He cleared this prop last night with his 26th home run of the season and went 3-for-4 the game before that.
He should stay hot against a sputtering Gallen.
Arizona's righty was a Cy Young finalist last year but he's fallen off lately. Gallen has a 5.35 ERA across his last seven starts and his strikeout numbers are on a sharp decline (more on that later).
Moreover, Harper is 8-for-17 against Gallen with a double and two home runs (.471 batting average, .882 SLG).
Key stat: Harper has a .339 batting average in 65 games against the Diamondbacks in his career, according to StatMuse.
Quick pick
Gallen under 5.5 strikeouts (-139): The Phillies have been getting carved up by righties lately but Gallen is in a bad place, too.
His 8.6 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career and he's gone under this number in seven of his last 10 starts.
In that span, the only time Gallen recorded seven-plus strikeouts was against the lowly Oakland Athletics. He barely scraped by this number against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals and has posted four or fewer Ks in five of his last seven.
All of that's to say he's not a big swing-and-miss arm right now.
And even when he was, Philadelphia gave Gallen a tough time. The righty has a paltry 19.2% K rate in a huge 120 plate apperance sample size against this lineup.
MLB picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET 08/09/2024.
